2. Bundesliga 2026-2027: Osnabruck vs Dresden Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Osnabruck

Home Team
32%
VS

Dresden

Away Team
39%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 10.4
Expected Shots: 28.6
Expected Spread: -0.4

Why the Model Leans Dresden

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Osnabruck
Results & dominance +5.9 Dresden
Defense +5.6 Dresden
Attack +3.3 Dresden
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.6 Dresden

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Dresden. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Osnabruck defense +3.4 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Dresden defense +2.5 Over
Dresden attack & chance creation +1.2 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.6 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Hertha 6 6 0 0 17 7 10 18
2 Nurnberg 6 5 1 0 16 6 10 16
3 Heidenheim 6 4 1 1 14 12 2 13
4 Wolfsburg 6 3 2 1 15 8 7 11
5 Kaiserslautern 6 3 2 1 6 4 2 11
6 Magdeburg 6 3 1 2 11 9 2 10
7 Cottbus 6 2 2 2 14 13 1 8
8 St Pauli 6 1 4 1 8 8 0 7
9 Bochum 6 2 1 3 5 6 -1 7
10 Hannover 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
11 Osnabruck 6 2 1 3 9 12 -3 7
12 Greuther Furth 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
13 Bielefeld 6 1 2 3 10 12 -2 5
14 Karlsruhe 6 1 2 3 6 12 -6 5
15 Braunschweig 6 1 1 4 12 13 -1 4
16 Holstein Kiel 6 0 4 2 7 10 -3 4
17 Dresden 6 1 1 4 8 14 -6 4
18 Darmstadt 6 1 1 4 5 13 -8 4

Recent Trends

Osnabruck D L W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Holstein Kiel (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Hertha (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Braunschweig (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bochum (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Magdeburg (Goals: 0 - 3)

Dresden L D L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Hertha (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Braunschweig (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bochum (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Darmstadt (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Osnabruck

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.33
Clean Sheets 1

Dresden

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 3.33
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Osnabruck a 32% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 29% and Dresden at 39%. This is a tight call, with Dresden only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 57% and sees both teams scoring in 61% of cases.

Match Analysis

Osnabruck arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLWWL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 8 with 1 clean sheet. Dresden arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDLLW from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 11 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Osnabruck sit 11th with 7 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -3, while Dresden are 17th with 4 points and a goal difference of -6. That puts Osnabruck 3 points clear of their opponent. Osnabruck average 1.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over their last five home games, while Dresden average 1.7 scored and 3.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Osnabruck), results & dominance (5.9 points toward Dresden), defense (5.6 points toward Dresden). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Osnabruck
Goals in last 5 matches
Dresden
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 43% and Over 2.5 at 57%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Osnabruck matches produced 2.8 goals on average over their last 5, Dresden matches 3.8. Both teams to score comes in at 61%, no goal for at least one side at 39%. In the model's own attribution, Osnabruck defense pulls toward Over by 3.4 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Osnabruck
Corners in last 5 matches
Dresden
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.4 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Osnabruck
Shots in last 5 matches
Dresden
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 28.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 28. The chance of 28 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 29 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Osnabruck wins by X goals. Negative = Dresden wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Osnabruck vs Dresden with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Osnabruck vs Dresden
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Dresden. The spread model gives 18% to a Osnabruck win by two goals or more and 51% to any Dresden win. A Dresden win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Dresden win (39%), Over 2.5 (57%), Goal (61%). Expected totals: 10.4 corners and 28.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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