Dresden

2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1450 · #14 2. Bundesliga 1W-2D-4L · 5 pts In line Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #16 of 18 38.8 expected pts · currently 5 pts after 7 matches

League title 0.0%
Promotion 0.1%
Automatic promotion 0.1%
Promotion barrage 0.3%
Relegation barrage 10.5%
Relegation 25.6%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full 2. Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Dresden?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Dresden's results were 0.2% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketDresdenLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 51.7% 47.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 48.3% 53.6%
Both teams to score 65.5% 61.3%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 2. Bundesliga #14 1489 1506 1450
2025-26 2. Bundesliga #7 1482 1526 1503
2021-22 2. Bundesliga #17 1467 1523 1360
2019-20 2. Bundesliga #17 1467 1498 1422
2018-19 2. Bundesliga #10 1468 1509 1486
2017-18 2. Bundesliga #17 1518 1535 1430

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 at Osnabruck W Dresden 38.6% · draw 29.0% D ✗
Sep 19, 2026 vs Hertha L Dresden 32.4% · draw 29.2% L ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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