Dresden

2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1493 · #10 2. Bundesliga 1W-0D-2L · 3 pts In line Updated Aug 30, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #14 of 18 43.5 expected pts · currently 3 pts after 3 matches

League title 0.6%
Promotion 2.2%
Automatic promotion 2.2%
Promotion barrage 2.2%
Relegation barrage 7.5%
Relegation 14.6%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full 2. Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Dresden?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Dresden's results were 0.2% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketDresdenLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 51.7% 47.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 48.3% 53.6%
Both teams to score 65.5% 61.3%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 2. Bundesliga #10 1489 1506 1493
2025-26 2. Bundesliga #7 1482 1526 1503
2021-22 2. Bundesliga #17 1467 1523 1360
2019-20 2. Bundesliga #17 1467 1498 1422
2018-19 2. Bundesliga #10 1468 1509 1486
2017-18 2. Bundesliga #17 1518 1535 1430

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 vs Holstein Kiel W Dresden 41.2% · draw 30.0% W ✓
May 09, 2026 at Braunschweig L Dresden 33.3% · draw 31.3% L ✓
May 02, 2026 vs Kaiserslautern W Dresden 38.2% · draw 30.3% W ✓
Apr 24, 2026 at Fortuna Dusseldorf L Dresden 31.9% · draw 30.7% L ✓
Apr 18, 2026 vs Bochum L Dresden 34.2% · draw 30.5% W ✗
Apr 11, 2026 at Nurnberg L Dresden 30.7% · draw 30.5% W ✗
Apr 04, 2026 vs Hertha L Dresden 34.8% · draw 29.4% L ✓
Mar 21, 2026 at Paderborn L Dresden 20.8% · draw 25.8% L ✓
Mar 15, 2026 vs Preußen Münster W Dresden 37.0% · draw 30.3% W ✓
Mar 08, 2026 at Karlsruhe L Dresden 33.6% · draw 29.7% D ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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