Dresden
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #11 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 41 pts · 11W–8D–15L · GD +1
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Dresden?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Dresden's results were 0.2% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Dresden | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 51.7% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 65.5% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #7 | 1482 | 1526 | 1503 |
| 2021-22 | 2. Bundesliga | #17 | 1467 | 1523 | 1360 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #17 | 1467 | 1498 | 1422 |
| 2018-19 | 2. Bundesliga | #10 | 1468 | 1509 | 1486 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #17 | 1518 | 1535 | 1430 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Holstein Kiel | W Dresden 41.2% · draw 30.0% | W ✓ |
| May 09, 2026 | at Braunschweig | L Dresden 33.3% · draw 31.3% | L ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | vs Kaiserslautern | W Dresden 38.2% · draw 30.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | at Fortuna Dusseldorf | L Dresden 31.9% · draw 30.7% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Bochum | L Dresden 34.2% · draw 30.5% | W ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Nurnberg | L Dresden 30.7% · draw 30.5% | W ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | vs Hertha | L Dresden 34.8% · draw 29.4% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Paderborn | L Dresden 20.8% · draw 25.8% | L ✓ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Preußen Münster | W Dresden 37.0% · draw 30.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | at Karlsruhe | L Dresden 33.6% · draw 29.7% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The 2. Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
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