Osnabruck
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #14 of 18 40.6 expected pts · currently 8 pts after 7 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Osnabruck?
Sample still small 2026-27 · 2 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Osnabruck's results were 35.5% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Osnabruck | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 0.0% | 44.4% |
| Both teams to score | 100.0% | 61.1% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 2. Bundesliga | #17 | 1418 | 1452 | 1435 |
| 2023-24 | 2. Bundesliga | #16 | 1379 | 1435 | 1407 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #17 | 1472 | 1551 | 1372 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #11 | 1471 | 1559 | 1462 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Dresden | L Osnabruck 32.4% · draw 29.0% | D ✗ |
| Sep 19, 2026 | at Holstein Kiel | L Osnabruck 22.8% · draw 28.0% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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