2. Bundesliga 2026-2027: St Pauli vs Karlsruhe Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

St Pauli

Home Team
55%
VS

Karlsruhe

Away Team
20%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.7
Expected Shots: 28.8
Expected Spread: +0.4

Why the Model Leans St Pauli

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 St Pauli
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +6.1 St Pauli
Attack +4.4 St Pauli
Defense +2.9 St Pauli
Results & dominance +0.9 St Pauli

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 74% for St Pauli. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Karlsruhe attack & chance creation +2.7 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +2.3 Over
St Pauli attack & chance creation +1.0 Over
Form & results +1.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Hertha 6 6 0 0 17 7 10 18
2 Nurnberg 6 5 1 0 16 6 10 16
3 Heidenheim 6 4 1 1 14 12 2 13
4 Wolfsburg 6 3 2 1 15 8 7 11
5 Kaiserslautern 6 3 2 1 6 4 2 11
6 Magdeburg 6 3 1 2 11 9 2 10
7 Cottbus 6 2 2 2 14 13 1 8
8 St Pauli 6 1 4 1 8 8 0 7
9 Bochum 6 2 1 3 5 6 -1 7
10 Hannover 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
11 Osnabruck 6 2 1 3 9 12 -3 7
12 Greuther Furth 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
13 Bielefeld 6 1 2 3 10 12 -2 5
14 Karlsruhe 6 1 2 3 6 12 -6 5
15 Braunschweig 6 1 1 4 12 13 -1 4
16 Holstein Kiel 6 0 4 2 7 10 -3 4
17 Dresden 6 1 1 4 8 14 -6 4
18 Darmstadt 6 1 1 4 5 13 -8 4

Recent Trends

St Pauli D W D L D

  • Last Match: D vs Cottbus (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Bielefeld (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Kaiserslautern (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Holstein Kiel (Goals: 2 - 2)

Karlsruhe L L D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Nurnberg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Cottbus (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Hannover (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Kaiserslautern (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

St Pauli

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Karlsruhe

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives St Pauli a 55% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 25% and Karlsruhe at 20%. St Pauli are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 57% and sees both teams scoring in 57% of cases.

Match Analysis

St Pauli arrive with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DWDLD from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Karlsruhe arrive with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLDLD from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 11 with 1 clean sheet. In the table St Pauli sit 8th with 7 points from 6 games and a level goal difference, while Karlsruhe are 14th with 5 points and a goal difference of -6. That puts St Pauli 2 points clear of their opponent. St Pauli average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Karlsruhe average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward St Pauli), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (6.1 points toward St Pauli), attack (4.4 points toward St Pauli). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

St Pauli
Goals in last 5 matches
Karlsruhe
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 43% and Over 2.5 at 57%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: St Pauli matches produced 2.8 goals on average over their last 5, Karlsruhe matches 3.0. Both teams to score comes in at 57%, no goal for at least one side at 43%. In the model's own attribution, Karlsruhe attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.7 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

St Pauli
Corners in last 5 matches
Karlsruhe
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.7 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

St Pauli
Shots in last 5 matches
Karlsruhe
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 28.8 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 28. The chance of 28 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 29 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = St Pauli wins by X goals. Negative = Karlsruhe wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for St Pauli vs Karlsruhe with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for St Pauli vs Karlsruhe
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of St Pauli. The spread model gives 28% to a St Pauli win by two goals or more and 37% to any Karlsruhe win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: St Pauli win (55%), Over 2.5 (57%), Goal (57%). Expected totals: 10.7 corners and 28.8 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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