2. Bundesliga 2026-2027: Wolfsburg vs Darmstadt Prediction - 18 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Wolfsburg

Home Team
75%
VS

Darmstadt

Away Team
9%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 10.7
Expected Shots: 29.0
Expected Spread: +1.0

Why the Model Leans Wolfsburg

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Defense +13.2 Wolfsburg
Home advantage +11.1 Wolfsburg
Results & dominance +6.4 Wolfsburg
Attack +6.3 Wolfsburg
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.1 Wolfsburg

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 89% for Wolfsburg. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Wolfsburg defense +5.3 Over
Darmstadt defense +3.4 Over
Wolfsburg attack & chance creation +3.3 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Darmstadt attack & chance creation +1.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Hertha 5 5 0 0 15 6 9 15
2 Nurnberg 5 4 1 0 15 6 9 13
3 Heidenheim 5 4 0 1 12 10 2 12
4 Magdeburg 5 3 0 2 10 8 2 9
5 Wolfsburg 5 2 2 1 10 7 3 8
6 Kaiserslautern 5 2 2 1 5 4 1 8
7 Cottbus 5 2 1 2 13 12 1 7
8 Bochum 5 2 1 2 4 4 0 7
9 St Pauli 5 1 3 1 7 7 0 6
10 Osnabruck 5 2 0 3 8 11 -3 6
11 Greuther Furth 5 1 2 2 8 10 -2 5
12 Karlsruhe 5 1 2 2 6 11 -5 5
13 Braunschweig 5 1 1 3 12 12 0 4
14 Bielefeld 5 1 1 3 8 10 -2 4
15 Hannover 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
16 Darmstadt 5 1 1 3 4 8 -4 4
17 Dresden 5 1 1 3 7 12 -5 4
18 Holstein Kiel 5 0 3 2 6 9 -3 3

Recent Trends

Wolfsburg L D W W D

  • Last Match: L vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Cottbus (Goals: 4 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Karlsruhe (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Hannover (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Kaiserslautern (Goals: 0 - 0)

Darmstadt W L L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Bielefeld (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Kaiserslautern (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Hannover (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Dresden (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Holstein Kiel (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wolfsburg

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 2

Darmstadt

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Wolfsburg a 75% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 16% and Darmstadt at 9%. Wolfsburg are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 61% and sees both teams scoring in 59% of cases.

Match Analysis

Wolfsburg arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (LDWWD from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 7 with 2 clean sheets. Darmstadt arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLLLD from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 8 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Wolfsburg sit 5th with 8 points from 5 games and a goal difference of +3, while Darmstadt are 16th with 4 points and a goal difference of -4. That puts Wolfsburg 4 points clear of their opponent. Wolfsburg average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Darmstadt average 0.0 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to defense (13.2 points toward Wolfsburg), home advantage (11.1 points toward Wolfsburg), results & dominance (6.4 points toward Wolfsburg). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Wolfsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Darmstadt
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 39% and Over 2.5 at 61%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Wolfsburg matches produced 3.4 goals on average over their last 5, Darmstadt matches 2.4. Both teams to score comes in at 59%, no goal for at least one side at 41%. In the model's own attribution, Wolfsburg defense pulls toward Over by 5.3 points and Darmstadt defense pulls toward Over by 3.4 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Wolfsburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Darmstadt
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.7 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Wolfsburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Darmstadt
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 29.0 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 28. The chance of 28 shots or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 29 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Wolfsburg wins by X goals. Negative = Darmstadt wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Wolfsburg vs Darmstadt with expected spread of +1.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Wolfsburg vs Darmstadt
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 1.0 goals in favour of Wolfsburg. The spread model gives 35% to a Wolfsburg win by two goals or more and 29% to any Darmstadt win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Wolfsburg win (75%), Over 2.5 (61%), Goal (59%). Expected totals: 10.7 corners and 29.0 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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