Championship 2026-2027: Blackburn vs Millwall Prediction - 12 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Blackburn

Home Team
31%
VS

Millwall

Away Team
39%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 24.6
Expected Spread: -0.4

Why the Model Leans Millwall

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Blackburn
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +7.5 Millwall
Attack +4.2 Millwall
Results & dominance +3.2 Millwall
Defense +3.1 Millwall

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Millwall. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Millwall attack & chance creation +2.8 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Blackburn attack & chance creation +2.0 Under
Millwall defense +1.1 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.8 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 West Brom 6 4 1 1 9 6 3 13
2 Southampton 6 3 2 1 14 7 7 11
3 West Ham 6 3 2 1 14 9 5 11
4 Swansea 6 3 2 1 8 4 4 11
5 QPR 6 3 2 1 7 4 3 11
6 Charlton 6 3 2 1 6 7 -1 11
7 Middlesbrough 5 3 1 1 8 5 3 10
8 Bristol City 5 3 1 1 9 7 2 10
9 Millwall 5 3 0 2 10 8 2 9
10 Norwich 6 3 0 3 10 9 1 9
11 Sheffield United 6 2 3 1 8 8 0 9
12 Wolves 5 2 2 1 13 10 3 8
13 Watford 6 2 2 2 6 7 -1 8
14 Wrexham 6 1 4 1 7 5 2 7
15 Birmingham 6 1 4 1 8 8 0 7
16 Stoke 6 2 1 3 9 10 -1 7
17 Portsmouth 5 2 0 3 7 8 -1 6
18 Blackburn 6 1 2 3 7 9 -2 5
19 Lincoln 5 1 2 2 4 6 -2 5
20 Cardiff 6 0 4 2 7 10 -3 4
21 Bolton 6 1 1 4 6 12 -6 4
22 Derby 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
23 Burnley 6 0 3 3 7 13 -6 3
24 Preston 6 1 0 5 6 12 -6 3

Recent Trends

Blackburn L L D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Sheffield United (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Preston (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lincoln (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs QPR (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Middlesbrough (Goals: 2 - 1)

Millwall W L L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Bolton (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Wrexham (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Southampton (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Norwich (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bristol City (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Blackburn

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.67
Clean Sheets 1

Millwall

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.50
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Blackburn a 31% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 29% and Millwall at 39%. This is a tight call, with Millwall only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Blackburn arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLDLW from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Millwall arrive with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLLWW from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 8 with 3 clean sheets. In the table Blackburn sit 18th with 5 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -2, while Millwall are 9th with 9 points and a goal difference of +2. That puts Millwall 4 points clear of their opponent. Blackburn average 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Millwall average 1.5 scored and 2.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Blackburn), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (7.5 points toward Millwall), attack (4.2 points toward Millwall). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Blackburn
Goals in last 5 matches
Millwall
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 52% and Over 2.5 at 48%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Blackburn matches produced 2.4 goals on average over their last 5, Millwall matches 3.6. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, Millwall attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.8 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Blackburn
Corners in last 5 matches
Millwall
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.0 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 58%, which leaves 42% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Blackburn
Shots in last 5 matches
Millwall
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Blackburn wins by X goals. Negative = Millwall wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Blackburn vs Millwall with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Blackburn vs Millwall
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Millwall. The spread model gives 17% to a Blackburn win by two goals or more and 51% to any Millwall win. A Millwall win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Millwall win (39%), Under 2.5 (52%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 10.0 corners and 24.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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