Blackburn
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #22 of 24 in Championship 52 pts · 13W–13D–20L · GD -14
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Blackburn?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Blackburn's results were 11.6% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Blackburn | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 29.3% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 39.0% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Championship | #14 | 1482 | 1523 | 1482 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #8 | 1499 | 1608 | 1510 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #15 | 1531 | 1538 | 1478 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #11 | 1485 | 1558 | 1516 |
| 2021-22 | Championship | #15 | 1500 | 1630 | 1460 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #15 | 1490 | 1568 | 1474 |
| 2019-20 | Championship | #13 | 1456 | 1572 | 1498 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #15 | 1529 | 1571 | 1487 |
| 2017-18 | League One | #1 | 1484 | 1721 | 1695 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #10 | 1466 | 1536 | 1536 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #15 | 1528 | 1562 | 1484 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #7 | 1582 | 1594 | 1568 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #4 | 1477 | 1606 | 1606 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #19 | 1502 | 1572 | 1468 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Leicester | L Blackburn 33.2% · draw 31.5% | L ✓ |
| Apr 22, 2026 | at Sheffield United | L Blackburn 16.5% · draw 22.9% | W ✗ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | vs Coventry | L Blackburn 21.9% · draw 24.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | at Southampton | L Blackburn 10.4% · draw 17.9% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Stoke | L Blackburn 24.8% · draw 29.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs West Brom | W Blackburn 34.5% · draw 31.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Birmingham | L Blackburn 13.3% · draw 22.2% | W ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Middlesbrough | L Blackburn 27.4% · draw 28.1% | D ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Millwall | L Blackburn 19.2% · draw 24.6% | W ✗ |
| Mar 11, 2026 | at Oxford | W Blackburn 35.3% · draw 31.8% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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