Blackburn

Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1514 · #12 Championship 4W-3D-3L · 15 pts Chaos club Updated Oct 14, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #10 of 24 65.2 expected pts · currently 15 pts after 10 matches

League title 0.6%
Promotion 5.8%
Automatic promotion 2.1%
Promotion playoffs 18.3%
Relegation 1.2%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Blackburn?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Blackburn's results were 11.6% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketBlackburnLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 29.3% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 61.0% 51.0%
Both teams to score 39.0% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Championship #12 1496 1518 1514
2025-26 Championship #14 1482 1523 1482
2024-25 Championship #8 1499 1608 1510
2023-24 Championship #15 1531 1538 1478
2022-23 Championship #11 1485 1558 1516
2021-22 Championship #15 1500 1630 1460
2020-21 Championship #15 1490 1568 1474
2019-20 Championship #13 1456 1572 1498
2018-19 Championship #15 1529 1571 1487
2017-18 League One #1 1484 1721 1695
2016-17 Championship #10 1466 1536 1536
2015-16 Championship #15 1528 1562 1484
2014-15 Championship #7 1582 1594 1568
2013-14 Championship #4 1477 1606 1606
2012-13 Championship #19 1502 1572 1468

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 13, 2026 at Bristol City L Blackburn 25.9% · draw 29.5% W ✗
Oct 10, 2026 vs Cardiff L Blackburn 33.6% · draw 30.8% W ✗
Sep 19, 2026 at Portsmouth L Blackburn 25.2% · draw 29.7% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 vs Millwall L Blackburn 31.4% · draw 29.5% W ✗

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