Millwall

Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1539 · #9 Championship 4W-2D-4L · 14 pts In line Updated Oct 14, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #6 of 24 68.2 expected pts · currently 14 pts after 10 matches

League title 1.1%
Promotion 10.6%
Automatic promotion 3.7%
Promotion playoffs 29.8%
Relegation 0.4%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Millwall?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Millwall's results were 2.0% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketMillwallLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 43.9% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 48.8% 51.0%
Both teams to score 46.3% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Championship #9 1624 1638 1539
2025-26 Championship #4 1529 1650 1626
2024-25 Championship #4 1493 1578 1563
2023-24 Championship #11 1518 1533 1533
2022-23 Championship #13 1553 1610 1477
2021-22 Championship #7 1492 1595 1546
2020-21 Championship #14 1518 1584 1483
2019-20 Championship #10 1460 1576 1525
2018-19 Championship #20 1591 1603 1422
2017-18 Championship #4 1396 1648 1617
2016-17 League One #7 1615 1618 1564
2015-16 League One #2 1625 1629 1629
2014-15 Championship #23 1512 1540 1388
2013-14 Championship #13 1384 1496 1496
2012-13 Championship #22 1516 1621 1381
2011-12 Championship #7 1520 1556 1555
2010-11 Championship #10 1452 1588 1518
2009-10 League One #2 1538 1695 1642
2008-09 League One #8 1454 1623 1546
2007-08 League One #14 1557 1574 1459
2006-07 League One #7 1498 1592 1572
2005-06 Championship #22 1482 1482 1386

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 13, 2026 vs Swansea W Millwall 35.3% · draw 32.3% L ✗
Oct 10, 2026 at Preston L Millwall 32.8% · draw 30.7% W ✗
Sep 19, 2026 vs West Ham L Millwall 22.5% · draw 25.0% D ✗
Sep 15, 2026 at Middlesbrough L Millwall 19.7% · draw 25.7% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 at Blackburn W Millwall 39.1% · draw 29.5% L ✗

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