Millwall
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #3 of 24 in Championship 83 pts · 24W–11D–11L · GD +15
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Millwall?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Millwall's results were 2.0% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Millwall | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 43.9% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Championship | #4 | 1529 | 1650 | 1626 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #4 | 1493 | 1578 | 1563 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #11 | 1518 | 1533 | 1533 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #13 | 1553 | 1610 | 1477 |
| 2021-22 | Championship | #7 | 1492 | 1595 | 1546 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #14 | 1518 | 1584 | 1483 |
| 2019-20 | Championship | #10 | 1460 | 1576 | 1525 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #20 | 1591 | 1603 | 1422 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #4 | 1396 | 1648 | 1617 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #7 | 1615 | 1618 | 1564 |
| 2015-16 | League One | #2 | 1625 | 1629 | 1629 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #23 | 1512 | 1540 | 1388 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #13 | 1384 | 1496 | 1496 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #22 | 1516 | 1621 | 1381 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #7 | 1520 | 1556 | 1555 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #10 | 1452 | 1588 | 1518 |
| 2009-10 | League One | #2 | 1538 | 1695 | 1642 |
| 2008-09 | League One | #8 | 1454 | 1623 | 1546 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #14 | 1557 | 1574 | 1459 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #7 | 1498 | 1592 | 1572 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #22 | 1482 | 1482 | 1386 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Oxford | W Millwall 58.3% · draw 25.0% | W ✓ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | at Leicester | L Millwall 23.4% · draw 28.7% | D ✗ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | at Stoke | L Millwall 30.9% · draw 30.7% | W ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs QPR | W Millwall 40.3% · draw 31.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at West Brom | L Millwall 24.2% · draw 29.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Norwich | W Millwall 35.9% · draw 31.5% | L ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Middlesbrough | L Millwall 18.7% · draw 25.7% | W ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Ipswich | L Millwall 12.8% · draw 21.9% | D ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Blackburn | W Millwall 56.1% · draw 24.6% | L ✗ |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vs Derby | W Millwall 44.2% · draw 29.9% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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