Championship 2026-2027: Bolton vs Stoke Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Bolton

Home Team
33%
VS

Stoke

Away Team
36%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 24.7
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Stoke

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Bolton
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.1 Stoke
Attack +3.7 Stoke
Results & dominance +3.5 Stoke

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Stoke. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.2 Under
Stoke defense +1.2 Over
Bolton defense +0.9 Over
Stoke attack & chance creation +0.6 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Swansea 8 5 2 1 13 6 7 17
2 West Ham 8 4 3 1 22 11 11 15
3 Middlesbrough 8 4 3 1 16 12 4 15
4 Southampton 8 4 2 2 19 10 9 14
5 Wolves 7 4 2 1 15 10 5 14
6 West Brom 8 4 2 2 10 8 2 14
7 QPR 8 3 4 1 10 7 3 13
8 Stoke 8 4 1 3 13 12 1 13
9 Bristol City 8 4 1 3 11 12 -1 13
10 Charlton 8 3 3 2 7 10 -3 12
11 Birmingham 8 2 5 1 12 11 1 11
12 Millwall 8 3 2 3 15 15 0 11
13 Lincoln 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11
14 Wrexham 8 2 4 2 9 12 -3 10
15 Bolton 8 3 1 4 11 15 -4 10
16 Blackburn 8 2 3 3 12 12 0 9
17 Norwich 8 3 0 5 16 17 -1 9
18 Sheffield United 8 2 3 3 9 11 -2 9
19 Portsmouth 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8
20 Watford 8 2 2 4 7 10 -3 8
21 Cardiff 8 1 4 3 10 12 -2 7
22 Derby 8 1 2 5 7 14 -7 5
23 Preston 8 1 1 6 8 15 -7 4
24 Burnley 8 0 4 4 9 17 -8 4

Recent Trends

Bolton W W L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Norwich (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cardiff (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Millwall (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sheffield United (Goals: 2 - 3)

Stoke W W D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Sheffield United (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Watford (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Cardiff (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Charlton (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Norwich (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bolton

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.25
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.25
Clean Sheets 1

Stoke

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.25
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.25
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Bolton a 33% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Stoke at 36%. This is a tight call, with Stoke only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 56% of cases.

Match Analysis

Bolton arrive with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWLLL from most recent), scoring 9 and conceding 13 with 1 clean sheet. Stoke arrive with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWDWW from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 3 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Bolton sit 15th with 10 points from 8 games and a goal difference of -4, while Stoke are 8th with 13 points and a goal difference of +1. That puts Stoke 3 points clear of their opponent. Bolton average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five home games, while Stoke average 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Bolton), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (5.1 points toward Stoke), attack (3.7 points toward Stoke). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bolton
Goals in last 5 matches
Stoke
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 51% and Over 2.5 at 49%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Bolton matches produced 4.4 goals on average over their last 5, Stoke matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 56%, no goal for at least one side at 44%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) pulls toward Under by 1.2 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bolton
Corners in last 5 matches
Stoke
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.0 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 46%, which leaves 54% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bolton
Shots in last 5 matches
Stoke
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.7 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Bolton wins by X goals. Negative = Stoke wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Bolton vs Stoke with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Bolton vs Stoke
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Stoke. The spread model gives 22% to a Bolton win by two goals or more and 45% to any Stoke win. A Stoke win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Stoke win (36%), Under 2.5 (51%), Goal (56%). Expected totals: 10.0 corners and 24.7 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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