Stoke

Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1487 · #13 Championship 5W-1D-4L · 16 pts In line Updated Oct 14, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #11 of 24 61.8 expected pts · currently 16 pts after 10 matches

League title 0.2%
Promotion 2.2%
Automatic promotion 0.7%
Promotion playoffs 9.8%
Relegation 3.4%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Stoke?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Stoke's results were 2.6% easier to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketStokeLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 41.5% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 58.5% 51.0%
Both teams to score 46.3% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Championship #13 1380 1506 1487
2025-26 Championship #23 1520 1602 1368
2024-25 Championship #16 1539 1539 1476
2023-24 Championship #12 1451 1531 1531
2022-23 Championship #21 1466 1574 1408
2021-22 Championship #12 1491 1561 1477
2020-21 Championship #17 1545 1595 1465
2019-20 Championship #7 1445 1555 1555
2018-19 Championship #18 1545 1587 1474
2017-18 Premier League #19 1482 1507 1384
2016-17 Premier League #13 1502 1514 1446
2015-16 Premier League #12 1471 1550 1470
2014-15 Premier League #7 1471 1539 1529
2007-08 Championship #4 1601 1657 1597
2006-07 Championship #2 1459 1609 1606
2005-06 Championship #15 1498 1547 1468

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 13, 2026 vs Middlesbrough L Stoke 29.4% · draw 28.6% L ✓
Oct 10, 2026 at Bolton W Stoke 36.0% · draw 31.1% W ✓
Sep 19, 2026 vs Sheffield United W Stoke 36.8% · draw 31.3% W ✓
Sep 12, 2026 at Watford L Stoke 27.0% · draw 32.1% W ✗

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