Stoke

Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1368 · #23 Championship 15W–10D–21L · 55 pts In line Updated May 02, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened

Final: #17 of 24 in Championship 55 pts · 15W–10D–21L · GD -5

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.

Full Championship simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Stoke?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Stoke's results were 2.6% easier to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketStokeLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 41.5% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 58.5% 51.0%
Both teams to score 46.3% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Championship #23 1520 1602 1368
2024-25 Championship #16 1539 1539 1476
2023-24 Championship #12 1451 1531 1531
2022-23 Championship #21 1466 1574 1408
2021-22 Championship #12 1491 1561 1477
2020-21 Championship #17 1545 1595 1465
2019-20 Championship #7 1445 1555 1555
2018-19 Championship #18 1545 1587 1474
2017-18 Premier League #19 1482 1507 1384
2016-17 Premier League #13 1502 1514 1446
2015-16 Premier League #12 1471 1550 1470
2014-15 Premier League #7 1471 1539 1529
2007-08 Championship #4 1601 1657 1597
2006-07 Championship #2 1459 1609 1606
2005-06 Championship #15 1498 1547 1468

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 02, 2026 at Bristol City L Stoke 34.1% · draw 31.5% L ✓
Apr 25, 2026 vs Portsmouth W Stoke 41.9% · draw 29.9% L ✗
Apr 21, 2026 vs Millwall W Stoke 38.4% · draw 30.7% L ✗
Apr 18, 2026 at Wrexham W Stoke 35.8% · draw 30.5% L ✗
Apr 11, 2026 vs Blackburn W Stoke 46.1% · draw 29.1% D ✗
Apr 06, 2026 at Derby L Stoke 30.7% · draw 31.5% L ✓
Apr 03, 2026 vs Sheffield Wednesday W Stoke 66.6% · draw 18.4% W ✓
Mar 20, 2026 at Preston W Stoke 34.6% · draw 31.1% L ✗
Mar 14, 2026 vs Watford L Stoke 30.5% · draw 29.9% W ✗
Mar 10, 2026 vs Ipswich L Stoke 25.5% · draw 26.3% D ✗

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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