Bolton
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #5 of 24 in League One 75 pts · 19W–18D–9L · GD +18
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Bolton?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bolton's results were 0.3% easier to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | Bolton | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.3% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League One | #7 | 1480 | 1632 | 1569 |
| 2024-25 | League One | #13 | 1609 | 1620 | 1456 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #3 | 1594 | 1651 | 1610 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #6 | 1577 | 1653 | 1597 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #6 | 1384 | 1595 | 1595 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #1 | 1467 | 1656 | 1622 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #22 | 1566 | 1566 | 1352 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #24 | 1462 | 1499 | 1264 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #22 | 1341 | 1471 | 1394 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #2 | 1544 | 1687 | 1636 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #24 | 1459 | 1464 | 1320 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #18 | 1516 | 1548 | 1449 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #8 | 1540 | 1570 | 1559 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #3 | 1479 | 1580 | 1549 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Luton | W Bolton 38.0% · draw 31.2% | L ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Bradford | L Bolton 33.5% · draw 31.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Huddersfield | W Bolton 47.2% · draw 28.7% | D ✗ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | vs Stevenage | W Bolton 53.1% · draw 27.5% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Cardiff | L Bolton 20.0% · draw 26.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Stockport | W Bolton 49.6% · draw 27.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Plymouth | W Bolton 42.6% · draw 28.9% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Port Vale | W Bolton 58.9% · draw 21.8% | L ✗ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Doncaster | W Bolton 65.0% · draw 21.2% | D ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Rotherham | W Bolton 50.2% · draw 25.9% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/bolton">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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