Bolton
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #19 of 24 56.5 expected pts · currently 13 pts after 10 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #5 of 24 in League One 75 pts · 19W-18D-9L · GD +18
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Bolton?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bolton's results were 0.3% easier to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | Bolton | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.3% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Championship | #21 | 1341 | 1410 | 1410 |
| 2025-26 | League One | #7 | 1480 | 1632 | 1569 |
| 2024-25 | League One | #13 | 1609 | 1620 | 1456 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #3 | 1594 | 1651 | 1610 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #6 | 1577 | 1653 | 1597 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #6 | 1384 | 1595 | 1595 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #1 | 1467 | 1656 | 1622 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #22 | 1566 | 1566 | 1352 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #24 | 1462 | 1499 | 1264 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #22 | 1341 | 1471 | 1394 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #2 | 1544 | 1687 | 1636 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #24 | 1459 | 1464 | 1320 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #18 | 1516 | 1548 | 1449 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #8 | 1540 | 1570 | 1559 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #3 | 1479 | 1580 | 1549 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The Championship title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/bolton">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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