Championship 2026-2027: Bristol City vs Lincoln Prediction - 15 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Bristol City

Home Team
46%
VS

Lincoln

Away Team
24%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 46%
No Goal: 54%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 26.5
Expected Spread: +0.3

Why the Model Leans Bristol City

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Bristol City
Results & dominance +2.2 Bristol City
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.6 Lincoln
Defense +1.4 Bristol City
Attack +1.1 Bristol City

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 66% for Bristol City. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Bristol City attack & chance creation +2.2 Under
Lincoln attack & chance creation +1.3 Under
Lincoln defense +1.3 Over
Bristol City defense +0.7 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 West Ham 7 4 2 1 20 9 11 14
2 Southampton 7 4 2 1 18 8 10 14
3 Swansea 7 4 2 1 11 5 6 14
4 West Brom 7 4 2 1 10 7 3 14
5 Middlesbrough 6 4 1 1 12 8 4 13
6 QPR 7 3 3 1 8 5 3 12
7 Charlton 7 3 3 1 6 7 -1 12
8 Wolves 6 3 2 1 14 10 4 11
9 Birmingham 7 2 4 1 10 9 1 10
10 Stoke 7 3 1 3 11 11 0 10
11 Bristol City 6 3 1 2 10 11 -1 10
12 Norwich 7 3 0 4 13 13 0 9
13 Millwall 6 3 0 3 11 11 0 9
14 Sheffield United 7 2 3 2 8 9 -1 9
15 Blackburn 7 2 2 3 10 10 0 8
16 Lincoln 6 2 2 2 5 6 -1 8
17 Watford 7 2 2 3 7 9 -2 8
18 Portsmouth 6 2 1 3 7 8 -1 7
19 Wrexham 7 1 4 2 7 11 -4 7
20 Bolton 7 2 1 4 7 12 -5 7
21 Cardiff 7 0 4 3 7 11 -4 4
22 Derby 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4
23 Preston 7 1 0 6 6 13 -7 3
24 Burnley 7 0 3 4 8 16 -8 3

Recent Trends

Bristol City L W W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Southampton (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Preston (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Portsmouth (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Birmingham (Goals: 2 - 2)

Lincoln W D D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Preston (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Southampton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Blackburn (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bolton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Portsmouth (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bristol City

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 0

Lincoln

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.67
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Bristol City a 46% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 29% and Lincoln at 24%. Bristol City are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 55% and sees both teams scoring in 46% of cases.

Match Analysis

Bristol City arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (LWWWD from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 9 with 0 clean sheets. Lincoln arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDDWL from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 4 with 3 clean sheets. In the table Bristol City sit 11th with 10 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -1, while Lincoln are 16th with 8 points and a goal difference of -1. That puts Bristol City 2 points clear of their opponent. Bristol City average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Lincoln average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Bristol City), results & dominance (2.2 points toward Bristol City), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (1.6 points toward Lincoln). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bristol City
Goals in last 5 matches
Lincoln
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 55% and Over 2.5 at 45%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Bristol City matches produced 3.8 goals on average over their last 5, Lincoln matches 1.6. Both teams to score comes in at 46%, no goal for at least one side at 54%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Bristol City attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.2 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bristol City
Corners in last 5 matches
Lincoln
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 56%, which leaves 44% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bristol City
Shots in last 5 matches
Lincoln
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.5 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Bristol City wins by X goals. Negative = Lincoln wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Bristol City vs Lincoln with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Bristol City vs Lincoln
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of Bristol City. The spread model gives 26% to a Bristol City win by two goals or more and 40% to any Lincoln win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Bristol City win (46%), Under 2.5 (55%), No Goal (54%). Expected totals: 10.2 corners and 26.5 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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