Bristol City

Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1482 · #14 Championship 4W-2D-4L · 14 pts In line Updated Oct 14, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #15 of 24 59.3 expected pts · currently 14 pts after 10 matches

League title 0.0%
Promotion 1.1%
Automatic promotion 0.2%
Promotion playoffs 5.0%
Relegation 6.6%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Bristol City?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bristol City's results were 4.5% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketBristol CityLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 41.5% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 56.1% 51.0%
Both teams to score 48.8% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Championship #14 1454 1547 1482
2025-26 Championship #16 1534 1569 1464
2024-25 Championship #6 1506 1606 1554
2023-24 Championship #13 1501 1541 1503
2022-23 Championship #12 1461 1541 1506
2021-22 Championship #13 1360 1485 1476
2020-21 Championship #24 1465 1550 1330
2019-20 Championship #20 1502 1614 1440
2018-19 Championship #6 1464 1622 1547
2017-18 Championship #16 1508 1639 1460
2016-17 Championship #14 1505 1551 1488
2015-16 Championship #14 1369 1511 1492
2014-15 League One #1 1600 1710 1710
2013-14 League One #6 1590 1590 1573
2012-13 Championship #24 1453 1472 1350
2011-12 Championship #17 1466 1502 1463
2010-11 Championship #13 1484 1560 1501
2009-10 Championship #9 1496 1559 1534
2008-09 Championship #16 1543 1615 1487
2007-08 Championship #9 1500 1613 1523
2006-07 League One #3 1576 1660 1625
2005-06 League One #4 1498 1608 1578

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 13, 2026 vs Blackburn W Bristol City 44.6% · draw 29.5% L ✗
Oct 10, 2026 at Charlton W Bristol City 38.4% · draw 29.9% D ✗
Sep 18, 2026 vs Watford W Bristol City 46.3% · draw 28.7% W ✓
Sep 15, 2026 vs Lincoln W Bristol City 46.4% · draw 29.2% L ✗
Sep 12, 2026 at Southampton L Bristol City 12.7% · draw 22.0% L ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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