Bristol City
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #12 of 24 in Championship 62 pts · 17W–11D–18L · GD +0
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Bristol City?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bristol City's results were 4.5% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Bristol City | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 41.5% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Championship | #16 | 1534 | 1569 | 1464 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #6 | 1506 | 1606 | 1554 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #13 | 1501 | 1541 | 1503 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #12 | 1461 | 1541 | 1506 |
| 2021-22 | Championship | #13 | 1360 | 1485 | 1476 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #24 | 1465 | 1550 | 1330 |
| 2019-20 | Championship | #20 | 1502 | 1614 | 1440 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #6 | 1464 | 1622 | 1547 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #16 | 1508 | 1639 | 1460 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #14 | 1505 | 1551 | 1488 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #14 | 1369 | 1511 | 1492 |
| 2014-15 | League One | #1 | 1600 | 1710 | 1710 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #6 | 1590 | 1590 | 1573 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #24 | 1453 | 1472 | 1350 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #17 | 1466 | 1502 | 1463 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #13 | 1484 | 1560 | 1501 |
| 2009-10 | Championship | #9 | 1496 | 1559 | 1534 |
| 2008-09 | Championship | #16 | 1543 | 1615 | 1487 |
| 2007-08 | Championship | #9 | 1500 | 1613 | 1523 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #3 | 1576 | 1660 | 1625 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #4 | 1498 | 1608 | 1578 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Stoke | W Bristol City 34.4% · draw 31.5% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Birmingham | L Bristol City 16.0% · draw 24.1% | L ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | at Southampton | L Bristol City 7.5% · draw 14.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Norwich | L Bristol City 32.8% · draw 31.6% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at QPR | L Bristol City 27.1% · draw 30.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Sheffield United | L Bristol City 33.9% · draw 30.4% | W ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Charlton | L Bristol City 32.9% · draw 31.5% | W ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs West Brom | L Bristol City 33.3% · draw 31.0% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Middlesbrough | L Bristol City 12.4% · draw 20.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 10, 2026 | at Leicester | W Bristol City 34.7% · draw 30.6% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Championship title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/bristol-city">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/bristol-city">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>