Lincoln
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
🏆 Final: #1 of 24 in League One 103 pts · 31W–10D–5L · GD +48
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Lincoln?
On script 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Lincoln's results were 13.0% easier to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | Lincoln | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 58.5% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League One | #1 | 1520 | 1782 | 1782 |
| 2024-25 | League One | #9 | 1589 | 1607 | 1499 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #4 | 1505 | 1630 | 1594 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #10 | 1458 | 1573 | 1526 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #16 | 1528 | 1541 | 1453 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #8 | 1490 | 1606 | 1531 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #15 | 1517 | 1566 | 1448 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #3 | 1603 | 1684 | 1566 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #4 | 1365 | 1600 | 1579 |
| 2010-11 | League Two | #24 | 1429 | 1518 | 1320 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #20 | 1448 | 1481 | 1430 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #17 | 1474 | 1554 | 1438 |
| 2007-08 | League Two | #12 | 1445 | 1537 | 1489 |
| 2006-07 | League Two | #13 | 1559 | 1663 | 1469 |
| 2005-06 | League Two | #4 | 1498 | 1606 | 1583 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Port Vale | W Lincoln 56.3% · draw 23.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Wycombe | W Lincoln 66.4% · draw 20.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | at Doncaster | W Lincoln 39.1% · draw 29.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Stevenage | W Lincoln 43.9% · draw 28.6% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Leyton Orient | W Lincoln 73.9% · draw 16.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Reading | W Lincoln 45.7% · draw 27.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs AFC Wimbledon | W Lincoln 72.3% · draw 17.1% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Rotherham | W Lincoln 75.0% · draw 15.7% | W ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Huddersfield | L Lincoln 33.4% · draw 31.3% | D ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Stockport | W Lincoln 56.5% · draw 24.8% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League One title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/lincoln">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/league_one"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="League One title odds & club ELO ratings — Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/lincoln">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>