Championship 2026-2027: Burnley vs Charlton Prediction - 13 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Burnley

Home Team
57%
VS

Charlton

Away Team
18%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.7
Expected Spread: +0.7

Why the Model Leans Burnley

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Burnley
Defense +4.9 Burnley
Attack +4.9 Burnley
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.5 Burnley
Results & dominance +1.8 Burnley

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 76% for Burnley. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Charlton defense +1.6 Over
Burnley attack & chance creation +1.4 Under
Burnley defense +1.1 Over
Charlton attack & chance creation +0.9 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Swansea 9 6 2 1 15 7 8 20
2 Middlesbrough 9 5 3 1 17 12 5 18
3 Southampton 9 5 2 2 20 10 10 17
4 West Ham 9 4 4 1 23 12 11 16
5 Stoke 9 5 1 3 15 13 2 16
6 Wolves 8 4 2 2 15 11 4 14
7 QPR 9 3 5 1 11 8 3 14
8 Birmingham 9 3 5 1 13 11 2 14
9 Millwall 9 4 2 3 16 15 1 14
10 West Brom 9 4 2 3 10 9 1 14
11 Bristol City 9 4 2 3 12 13 -1 14
12 Charlton 9 3 4 2 8 11 -3 13
13 Blackburn 9 3 3 3 14 13 1 12
14 Sheffield United 9 3 3 3 12 11 1 12
15 Wrexham 9 2 5 2 10 13 -3 11
16 Lincoln 9 3 2 4 7 11 -4 11
17 Bolton 9 3 1 5 12 17 -5 10
18 Norwich 9 3 0 6 17 19 -2 9
19 Portsmouth 8 2 2 4 9 11 -2 8
20 Watford 9 2 2 5 7 14 -7 8
21 Cardiff 9 1 4 4 11 14 -3 7
22 Burnley 9 1 4 4 13 17 -4 7
23 Derby 9 1 3 5 8 15 -7 6
24 Preston 9 1 1 7 8 16 -8 4

Recent Trends

Burnley W D L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Watford (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Derby (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Swansea (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Wrexham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bristol City (Goals: 1 - 2)

Charlton D L D D L

  • Last Match: D vs Bristol City (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Cardiff (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Portsmouth (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs QPR (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Stoke (Goals: 0 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Burnley

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.25
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 1

Charlton

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.25
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Burnley a 57% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 25% and Charlton at 18%. Burnley are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 49% of cases.

Match Analysis

Burnley arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WDLDL from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Charlton arrive with 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLDDL from most recent), scoring 2 and conceding 8 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Burnley sit 22nd with 7 points from 9 games and a goal difference of -4, while Charlton are 12th with 13 points and a goal difference of -3. That puts Charlton 6 points clear of their opponent. Burnley average 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Charlton average 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Burnley), defense (4.9 points toward Burnley), attack (4.9 points toward Burnley). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Burnley
Goals in last 5 matches
Charlton
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 51% and Over 2.5 at 49%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Burnley matches produced 3.0 goals on average over their last 5, Charlton matches 2.0. Both teams to score comes in at 49%, no goal for at least one side at 51%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Charlton defense pulls toward Over by 1.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Burnley
Corners in last 5 matches
Charlton
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Burnley
Shots in last 5 matches
Charlton
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.7 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 50% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Burnley wins by X goals. Negative = Charlton wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Burnley vs Charlton with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Burnley vs Charlton
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.7 goals in favour of Burnley. The spread model gives 31% to a Burnley win by two goals or more and 33% to any Charlton win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Burnley win (57%), Under 2.5 (51%), No Goal (51%). Expected totals: 9.8 corners and 25.7 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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