Charlton
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #20 of 24 in Championship 53 pts · 13W–14D–19L · GD -14
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Charlton?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Charlton's results were 5.4% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Charlton | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 43.9% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Championship | #20 | 1518 | 1553 | 1416 |
| 2024-25 | League One | #4 | 1546 | 1674 | 1659 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #13 | 1526 | 1526 | 1497 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #11 | 1500 | 1576 | 1516 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #12 | 1580 | 1580 | 1499 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #4 | 1646 | 1675 | 1600 |
| 2019-20 | Championship | #21 | 1471 | 1541 | 1387 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #1 | 1525 | 1672 | 1671 |
| 2017-18 | League One | #5 | 1524 | 1604 | 1558 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #12 | 1607 | 1631 | 1510 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #21 | 1513 | 1535 | 1422 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #14 | 1497 | 1594 | 1483 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #14 | 1511 | 1511 | 1493 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #4 | 1445 | 1539 | 1539 |
| 2011-12 | League One | #2 | 1483 | 1725 | 1684 |
| 2010-11 | League One | #16 | 1606 | 1628 | 1447 |
| 2009-10 | League One | #5 | 1518 | 1635 | 1589 |
| 2008-09 | Championship | #21 | 1499 | 1520 | 1422 |
| 2007-08 | Championship | #15 | 1498 | 1592 | 1470 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Swansea | L Charlton 30.6% · draw 31.5% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Hull | W Charlton 35.6% · draw 32.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 22, 2026 | vs Ipswich | L Charlton 25.0% · draw 25.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Sheffield Wednesday | W Charlton 51.4% · draw 25.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Preston | W Charlton 35.3% · draw 33.0% | L ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Watford | L Charlton 17.1% · draw 26.6% | D ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Bristol City | W Charlton 35.6% · draw 31.5% | L ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Norwich | L Charlton 31.9% · draw 30.6% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Oxford | L Charlton 25.2% · draw 30.5% | D ✗ |
| Mar 11, 2026 | at Middlesbrough | L Charlton 9.6% · draw 18.3% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Championship title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/charlton">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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