Charlton

Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1455 · #19 Championship 3W-5D-2L · 14 pts In line Updated Oct 14, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #18 of 24 57.2 expected pts · currently 14 pts after 10 matches

League title 0.0%
Promotion 0.3%
Automatic promotion 0.1%
Promotion playoffs 2.9%
Relegation 10.9%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Charlton?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Charlton's results were 5.4% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketCharltonLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 43.9% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 56.1% 51.0%
Both teams to score 53.7% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Championship #19 1459 1516 1455
2025-26 Championship #20 1518 1553 1416
2024-25 League One #4 1546 1674 1659
2023-24 League One #13 1526 1526 1497
2022-23 League One #11 1500 1576 1516
2021-22 League One #12 1580 1580 1499
2020-21 League One #4 1646 1675 1600
2019-20 Championship #21 1471 1541 1387
2018-19 League One #1 1525 1672 1671
2017-18 League One #5 1524 1604 1558
2016-17 League One #12 1607 1631 1510
2015-16 Championship #21 1513 1535 1422
2014-15 Championship #14 1497 1594 1483
2013-14 Championship #14 1511 1511 1493
2012-13 Championship #4 1445 1539 1539
2011-12 League One #2 1483 1725 1684
2010-11 League One #16 1606 1628 1447
2009-10 League One #5 1518 1635 1589
2008-09 Championship #21 1499 1520 1422
2007-08 Championship #15 1498 1592 1470

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 13, 2026 at Burnley L Charlton 17.6% · draw 25.0% D ✗
Oct 10, 2026 vs Bristol City L Charlton 31.8% · draw 29.9% D ✗
Sep 19, 2026 at Cardiff L Charlton 22.8% · draw 28.4% L ✓
Sep 12, 2026 vs Portsmouth L Charlton 33.2% · draw 30.3% D ✗

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