Championship 2026-2027: Burnley vs Derby Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Burnley

Home Team
52%
VS

Derby

Away Team
21%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 25.6
Expected Spread: +0.4

Why the Model Leans Burnley

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Burnley
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.4 Burnley
Results & dominance +3.2 Burnley
Attack +1.1 Burnley
Defense +1.0 Burnley

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 71% for Burnley. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Burnley attack & chance creation +1.1 Under
Derby defense +1.1 Over
Derby attack & chance creation +0.7 Over
Form & results +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 West Ham 7 4 2 1 20 9 11 14
2 Southampton 7 4 2 1 18 8 10 14
3 Swansea 7 4 2 1 11 5 6 14
4 Middlesbrough 7 4 2 1 14 10 4 14
5 West Brom 7 4 2 1 10 7 3 14
6 QPR 7 3 3 1 8 5 3 12
7 Charlton 7 3 3 1 6 7 -1 12
8 Wolves 6 3 2 1 14 10 4 11
9 Lincoln 7 3 2 2 6 6 0 11
10 Birmingham 7 2 4 1 10 9 1 10
11 Millwall 7 3 1 3 13 13 0 10
12 Stoke 7 3 1 3 11 11 0 10
13 Bristol City 7 3 1 3 10 12 -2 10
14 Norwich 7 3 0 4 13 13 0 9
15 Sheffield United 7 2 3 2 8 9 -1 9
16 Blackburn 7 2 2 3 10 10 0 8
17 Watford 7 2 2 3 7 9 -2 8
18 Portsmouth 6 2 1 3 7 8 -1 7
19 Wrexham 7 1 4 2 7 11 -4 7
20 Bolton 7 2 1 4 7 12 -5 7
21 Cardiff 7 0 4 3 7 11 -4 4
22 Derby 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4
23 Preston 7 1 0 6 6 13 -7 3
24 Burnley 7 0 3 4 8 16 -8 3

Recent Trends

Burnley L D L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Swansea (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Wrexham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bristol City (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Middlesbrough (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Norwich (Goals: 1 - 4)

Derby L L L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Birmingham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs West Brom (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Portsmouth (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Swansea (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Burnley

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.67
Clean Sheets 0

Derby

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.67
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Burnley a 52% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 27% and Derby at 21%. Burnley are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 50% and sees both teams scoring in 51% of cases.

Match Analysis

Burnley arrive with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDLDL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 11 with 0 clean sheets. Derby arrive with 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLLWL from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 9 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Burnley sit 24th with 3 points from 7 games and a goal difference of -8, while Derby are 22nd with 4 points and a goal difference of -7. That puts Derby 1 point clear of their opponent. Burnley average 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Derby average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Burnley), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (3.4 points toward Burnley), results & dominance (3.2 points toward Burnley). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Burnley
Goals in last 5 matches
Derby
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 50% and Over 2.5 at 50%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Burnley matches produced 3.2 goals on average over their last 5, Derby matches 2.4. Both teams to score comes in at 51%, no goal for at least one side at 49%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Burnley attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 1.1 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Burnley
Corners in last 5 matches
Derby
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Burnley
Shots in last 5 matches
Derby
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Burnley wins by X goals. Negative = Derby wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Burnley vs Derby with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Burnley vs Derby
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Burnley. The spread model gives 28% to a Burnley win by two goals or more and 37% to any Derby win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Burnley win (52%), Over 2.5 (50%), Goal (51%). Expected totals: 10.3 corners and 25.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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