Derby

Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1529 · #9 Championship 20W–9D–17L · 69 pts In line Updated May 02, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened

Final: #8 of 24 in Championship 69 pts · 20W–9D–17L · GD +8

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.

Full Championship simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Derby?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Derby's results were 3.9% easier to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketDerbyLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 48.8% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 51.2% 51.0%
Both teams to score 58.5% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Championship #9 1480 1570 1529
2024-25 Championship #10 1424 1504 1501
2023-24 League One #2 1525 1663 1654
2022-23 League One #8 1520 1656 1563
2021-22 Championship #19 1395 1538 1426
2020-21 Championship #23 1487 1511 1369
2019-20 Championship #9 1583 1600 1534
2018-19 Championship #4 1550 1603 1576
2017-18 Championship #10 1532 1653 1540
2016-17 Championship #11 1551 1621 1530
2015-16 Championship #5 1509 1676 1563
2014-15 Championship #11 1605 1662 1511
2013-14 Championship #3 1483 1650 1617
2012-13 Championship #17 1484 1532 1482
2011-12 Championship #13 1430 1516 1485
2010-11 Championship #24 1531 1586 1368
2009-10 Championship #12 1483 1530 1509
2008-09 Championship #18 1520 1569 1453
2006-07 Championship #5 1444 1658 1567
2005-06 Championship #19 1498 1550 1429

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 02, 2026 vs Sheffield United W Derby 35.8% · draw 31.4% L ✗
Apr 25, 2026 at QPR L Derby 32.4% · draw 32.2% W ✗
Apr 21, 2026 at Norwich L Derby 23.8% · draw 28.9% L ✓
Apr 18, 2026 vs Oxford W Derby 47.5% · draw 28.8% W ✓
Apr 11, 2026 at Southampton L Derby 15.1% · draw 23.9% L ✓
Apr 06, 2026 vs Stoke W Derby 37.8% · draw 31.5% W ✓
Apr 03, 2026 at Coventry L Derby 10.2% · draw 20.3% L ✓
Mar 21, 2026 vs Birmingham L Derby 32.3% · draw 30.5% W ✗
Mar 16, 2026 at Portsmouth L Derby 30.9% · draw 31.5% W ✗
Mar 10, 2026 at Millwall L Derby 25.9% · draw 29.9% L ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

The Championship title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/derby">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in): 

<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/championship"
        width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
        title="Championship title odds & club ELO ratings — Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/derby">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>
Preview widget All widgets