Derby
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #22 of 24 50.4 expected pts · currently 6 pts after 10 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #8 of 24 in Championship 69 pts · 20W-9D-17L · GD +8
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Derby?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Derby's results were 3.9% easier to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Derby | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 48.8% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Championship | #20 | 1500 | 1501 | 1432 |
| 2025-26 | Championship | #9 | 1480 | 1570 | 1529 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #10 | 1424 | 1504 | 1501 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #2 | 1525 | 1663 | 1654 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #8 | 1520 | 1656 | 1563 |
| 2021-22 | Championship | #19 | 1395 | 1538 | 1426 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #23 | 1487 | 1511 | 1369 |
| 2019-20 | Championship | #9 | 1583 | 1600 | 1534 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #4 | 1550 | 1603 | 1576 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #10 | 1532 | 1653 | 1540 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #11 | 1551 | 1621 | 1530 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #5 | 1509 | 1676 | 1563 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #11 | 1605 | 1662 | 1511 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #3 | 1483 | 1650 | 1617 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #17 | 1484 | 1532 | 1482 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #13 | 1430 | 1516 | 1485 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #24 | 1531 | 1586 | 1368 |
| 2009-10 | Championship | #12 | 1483 | 1530 | 1509 |
| 2008-09 | Championship | #18 | 1520 | 1569 | 1453 |
| 2006-07 | Championship | #5 | 1444 | 1658 | 1567 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #19 | 1498 | 1550 | 1429 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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