Championship 2026-2027: Charlton vs Bristol City Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Charlton

Home Team
32%
VS

Bristol City

Away Team
38%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.2
Expected Spread: -0.3

Why the Model Leans Bristol City

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Charlton
Defense +5.7 Bristol City
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.8 Bristol City
Results & dominance +4.3 Bristol City
Attack +1.1 Bristol City

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Bristol City. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Bristol City attack & chance creation +2.5 Over
Charlton attack & chance creation +2.3 Under
Charlton defense +1.4 Over
Form & results +1.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Swansea 8 5 2 1 13 6 7 17
2 West Ham 8 4 3 1 22 11 11 15
3 Middlesbrough 8 4 3 1 16 12 4 15
4 Southampton 8 4 2 2 19 10 9 14
5 Wolves 7 4 2 1 15 10 5 14
6 West Brom 8 4 2 2 10 8 2 14
7 QPR 8 3 4 1 10 7 3 13
8 Stoke 8 4 1 3 13 12 1 13
9 Bristol City 8 4 1 3 11 12 -1 13
10 Charlton 8 3 3 2 7 10 -3 12
11 Birmingham 8 2 5 1 12 11 1 11
12 Millwall 8 3 2 3 15 15 0 11
13 Lincoln 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11
14 Wrexham 8 2 4 2 9 12 -3 10
15 Bolton 8 3 1 4 11 15 -4 10
16 Blackburn 8 2 3 3 12 12 0 9
17 Norwich 8 3 0 5 16 17 -1 9
18 Sheffield United 8 2 3 3 9 11 -2 9
19 Portsmouth 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8
20 Watford 8 2 2 4 7 10 -3 8
21 Cardiff 8 1 4 3 10 12 -2 7
22 Derby 8 1 2 5 7 14 -7 5
23 Preston 8 1 1 6 8 15 -7 4
24 Burnley 8 0 4 4 9 17 -8 4

Recent Trends

Charlton L D D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Cardiff (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Portsmouth (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs QPR (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Stoke (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs West Brom (Goals: 1 - 1)

Bristol City W L L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Watford (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lincoln (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Southampton (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Preston (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Charlton

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.75
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.25
Clean Sheets 2

Bristol City

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Charlton a 32% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Bristol City at 38%. This is a tight call, with Bristol City only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Charlton arrive with 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDDLD from most recent), scoring 2 and conceding 8 with 2 clean sheets. Bristol City arrive with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLLWW from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Charlton sit 10th with 12 points from 8 games and a goal difference of -3, while Bristol City are 9th with 13 points and a goal difference of -1. That puts Bristol City 1 point clear of their opponent. Charlton average 0.8 goals scored and 0.2 conceded over their last five home games, while Bristol City average 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Charlton), defense (5.7 points toward Bristol City), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (4.8 points toward Bristol City). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Charlton
Goals in last 5 matches
Bristol City
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 51% and Over 2.5 at 49%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Charlton matches produced 2.0 goals on average over their last 5, Bristol City matches 2.8. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Bristol City attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.5 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Charlton
Corners in last 5 matches
Bristol City
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Charlton
Shots in last 5 matches
Bristol City
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.2 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Charlton wins by X goals. Negative = Bristol City wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Charlton vs Bristol City with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Charlton vs Bristol City
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of Bristol City. The spread model gives 18% to a Charlton win by two goals or more and 50% to any Bristol City win. A Bristol City win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Bristol City win (38%), Under 2.5 (51%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.8 corners and 25.2 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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