Championship 2026-2027: Derby vs Birmingham Prediction - 12 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Derby

Home Team
35%
VS

Birmingham

Away Team
34%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 23.6
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Derby

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Derby
Results & dominance +3.9 Birmingham
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.0 Birmingham
Defense +2.4 Birmingham
Attack +1.0 Birmingham

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Derby. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Derby defense +2.9 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Birmingham defense +1.3 Over
Derby attack & chance creation +1.0 Over
Birmingham attack & chance creation +0.9 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 West Brom 6 4 1 1 9 6 3 13
2 Southampton 6 3 2 1 14 7 7 11
3 West Ham 6 3 2 1 14 9 5 11
4 Swansea 6 3 2 1 8 4 4 11
5 QPR 6 3 2 1 7 4 3 11
6 Charlton 6 3 2 1 6 7 -1 11
7 Middlesbrough 5 3 1 1 8 5 3 10
8 Bristol City 5 3 1 1 9 7 2 10
9 Millwall 5 3 0 2 10 8 2 9
10 Norwich 6 3 0 3 10 9 1 9
11 Sheffield United 6 2 3 1 8 8 0 9
12 Wolves 5 2 2 1 13 10 3 8
13 Watford 6 2 2 2 6 7 -1 8
14 Wrexham 6 1 4 1 7 5 2 7
15 Birmingham 6 1 4 1 8 8 0 7
16 Stoke 6 2 1 3 9 10 -1 7
17 Portsmouth 5 2 0 3 7 8 -1 6
18 Blackburn 6 1 2 3 7 9 -2 5
19 Lincoln 5 1 2 2 4 6 -2 5
20 Cardiff 6 0 4 2 7 10 -3 4
21 Bolton 6 1 1 4 6 12 -6 4
22 Derby 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
23 Burnley 6 0 3 3 7 13 -6 3
24 Preston 6 1 0 5 6 12 -6 3

Recent Trends

Derby L L W L D

  • Last Match: L vs West Brom (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Portsmouth (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Swansea (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Cardiff (Goals: 2 - 2)

Birmingham L D D W D

  • Last Match: L vs Norwich (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Southampton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Wrexham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Bristol City (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Derby

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 1

Birmingham

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Derby a 35% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Birmingham at 34%. This is a tight call, with Derby only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 53% of cases.

Match Analysis

Derby arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLWLD from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 9 with 1 clean sheet. Birmingham arrive with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (LDDWD from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 8 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Derby sit 22nd with 4 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -6, while Birmingham are 15th with 7 points and a level goal difference. That puts Birmingham 3 points clear of their opponent. Derby average 0.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Birmingham average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Derby), results & dominance (3.9 points toward Birmingham), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (3.0 points toward Birmingham). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Derby
Goals in last 5 matches
Birmingham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 46% and Over 2.5 at 54%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Derby matches produced 2.6 goals on average over their last 5, Birmingham matches 3.2. Both teams to score comes in at 53%, no goal for at least one side at 47%. In the model's own attribution, Derby defense pulls toward Over by 2.9 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Derby
Corners in last 5 matches
Birmingham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Derby
Shots in last 5 matches
Birmingham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 50% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Derby wins by X goals. Negative = Birmingham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Derby vs Birmingham with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Derby vs Birmingham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Birmingham. The spread model gives 22% to a Derby win by two goals or more and 45% to any Birmingham win. A Birmingham win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Derby win (35%), Over 2.5 (54%), Goal (53%). Expected totals: 10.3 corners and 23.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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