Birmingham

Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1585 · #6 Championship 4W-5D-1L · 17 pts In line Updated Oct 14, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #5 of 24 71.9 expected pts · currently 17 pts after 10 matches

League title 3.2%
Promotion 19.9%
Automatic promotion 9.4%
Promotion playoffs 43.2%
Relegation 0.1%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Birmingham?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Birmingham's results were 6.3% easier to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketBirminghamLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 53.7% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 56.1% 51.0%
Both teams to score 65.8% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Championship #6 1515 1585 1585
2025-26 Championship #11 1498 1566 1515
2024-25 League One #1 1498 1762 1762
2023-24 Championship #19 1444 1528 1437
2022-23 Championship #19 1401 1541 1421
2021-22 Championship #23 1507 1533 1366
2020-21 Championship #18 1420 1510 1454
2019-20 Championship #23 1531 1541 1354
2018-19 Championship #13 1481 1578 1498
2017-18 Championship #13 1425 1479 1479
2016-17 Championship #22 1480 1564 1427
2015-16 Championship #16 1555 1599 1476
2014-15 Championship #9 1375 1556 1556
2013-14 Championship #23 1492 1532 1355
2012-13 Championship #7 1581 1581 1526
2011-12 Championship #4 1564 1639 1611
2008-09 Championship #3 1578 1657 1625
2006-07 Championship #4 1518 1669 1576

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 13, 2026 vs Preston W Birmingham 56.4% · draw 25.9% W ✓
Oct 10, 2026 at West Brom L Birmingham 28.2% · draw 31.4% W ✗
Sep 19, 2026 vs Middlesbrough L Birmingham 31.8% · draw 29.5% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 at Derby L Birmingham 33.6% · draw 30.9% W ✗

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