Championship 2026-2027: Derby vs Wrexham Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Derby

Home Team
35%
VS

Wrexham

Away Team
34%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 24.8
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Derby

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Derby
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.3 Wrexham
Defense +3.6 Wrexham
Results & dominance +1.9 Wrexham

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Derby. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Derby defense +2.4 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.6 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Swansea 8 5 2 1 13 6 7 17
2 West Ham 8 4 3 1 22 11 11 15
3 Middlesbrough 8 4 3 1 16 12 4 15
4 Southampton 8 4 2 2 19 10 9 14
5 Wolves 7 4 2 1 15 10 5 14
6 West Brom 8 4 2 2 10 8 2 14
7 QPR 8 3 4 1 10 7 3 13
8 Stoke 8 4 1 3 13 12 1 13
9 Bristol City 8 4 1 3 11 12 -1 13
10 Charlton 8 3 3 2 7 10 -3 12
11 Birmingham 8 2 5 1 12 11 1 11
12 Millwall 8 3 2 3 15 15 0 11
13 Lincoln 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11
14 Wrexham 8 2 4 2 9 12 -3 10
15 Bolton 8 3 1 4 11 15 -4 10
16 Blackburn 8 2 3 3 12 12 0 9
17 Norwich 8 3 0 5 16 17 -1 9
18 Sheffield United 8 2 3 3 9 11 -2 9
19 Portsmouth 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8
20 Watford 8 2 2 4 7 10 -3 8
21 Cardiff 8 1 4 3 10 12 -2 7
22 Derby 8 1 2 5 7 14 -7 5
23 Preston 8 1 1 6 8 15 -7 4
24 Burnley 8 0 4 4 9 17 -8 4

Recent Trends

Derby D L L L W

  • Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Birmingham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs West Brom (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Portsmouth (Goals: 2 - 0)

Wrexham W L D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Southampton (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 6)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Swansea (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Millwall (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Derby

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.75
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 1

Wrexham

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.75
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Derby a 35% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Wrexham at 34%. This is a tight call, with Derby only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Derby arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLLLW from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Wrexham arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WLDDW from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 8 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Derby sit 22nd with 5 points from 8 games and a goal difference of -7, while Wrexham are 14th with 10 points and a goal difference of -3. That puts Wrexham 5 points clear of their opponent. Derby average 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Wrexham average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Derby), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (5.3 points toward Wrexham), defense (3.6 points toward Wrexham). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Derby
Goals in last 5 matches
Wrexham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 48% and Over 2.5 at 52%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Derby matches produced 2.2 goals on average over their last 5, Wrexham matches 2.8. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Derby defense pulls toward Over by 2.4 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Derby
Corners in last 5 matches
Wrexham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Derby
Shots in last 5 matches
Wrexham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.8 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Derby wins by X goals. Negative = Wrexham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Derby vs Wrexham with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Derby vs Wrexham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Derby. The spread model gives 23% to a Derby win by two goals or more and 43% to any Wrexham win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Derby win (35%), Over 2.5 (52%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 10.3 corners and 24.8 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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