Wrexham
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #7 of 24 in Championship 71 pts · 19W–14D–13L · GD +4
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Wrexham?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Wrexham's results were 6.6% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Wrexham | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 34.2% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 58.5% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Championship | #8 | 1482 | 1606 | 1542 |
| 2024-25 | League One | #2 | 1523 | 1693 | 1693 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #2 | 1388 | 1660 | 1660 |
| 2007-08 | League Two | #20 | 1454 | 1475 | 1383 |
| 2006-07 | League Two | #14 | 1456 | 1538 | 1466 |
| 2005-06 | League Two | #18 | 1520 | 1556 | 1442 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Middlesbrough | L Wrexham 26.8% · draw 28.6% | D ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | at Coventry | L Wrexham 7.8% · draw 15.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | at Oxford | L Wrexham 33.6% · draw 31.7% | W ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Stoke | L Wrexham 33.8% · draw 30.5% | W ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Birmingham | L Wrexham 20.6% · draw 26.5% | L ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | vs Southampton | L Wrexham 31.5% · draw 30.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at West Brom | L Wrexham 23.9% · draw 28.9% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Sheffield United | L Wrexham 28.5% · draw 30.7% | W ✗ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Watford | L Wrexham 29.9% · draw 31.1% | L ✓ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vs Swansea | W Wrexham 38.3% · draw 30.8% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Championship title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/wrexham">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/championship"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="Championship title odds & club ELO ratings — Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/wrexham">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>