Championship 2026-2027: Lincoln vs West Ham Prediction - 14 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lincoln

Home Team
20%
VS

West Ham

Away Team
58%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 25.7
Expected Spread: -0.9

Why the Model Leans West Ham

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Results & dominance +11.4 West Ham
Home advantage +11.1 Lincoln
Attack +8.8 West Ham
Defense +8.6 West Ham
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +6.8 West Ham

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 75% for West Ham. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
West Ham attack & chance creation +2.4 Over
Lincoln attack & chance creation +1.8 Under
West Ham defense +0.8 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Swansea 9 6 2 1 15 7 8 20
2 Middlesbrough 9 5 3 1 17 12 5 18
3 Southampton 9 5 2 2 20 10 10 17
4 West Ham 9 4 4 1 23 12 11 16
5 Stoke 9 5 1 3 15 13 2 16
6 Wolves 8 4 2 2 15 11 4 14
7 QPR 9 3 5 1 11 8 3 14
8 Birmingham 9 3 5 1 13 11 2 14
9 Millwall 9 4 2 3 16 15 1 14
10 West Brom 9 4 2 3 10 9 1 14
11 Bristol City 9 4 2 3 12 13 -1 14
12 Charlton 9 3 4 2 8 11 -3 13
13 Blackburn 9 3 3 3 14 13 1 12
14 Sheffield United 9 3 3 3 12 11 1 12
15 Wrexham 9 2 5 2 10 13 -3 11
16 Lincoln 9 3 2 4 7 11 -4 11
17 Bolton 9 3 1 5 12 17 -5 10
18 Norwich 9 3 0 6 17 19 -2 9
19 Portsmouth 8 2 2 4 9 11 -2 8
20 Watford 9 2 2 5 7 14 -7 8
21 Cardiff 9 1 4 4 11 14 -3 7
22 Burnley 9 1 4 4 13 17 -4 7
23 Derby 9 1 3 5 8 15 -7 6
24 Preston 9 1 1 7 8 16 -8 4

Recent Trends

Lincoln L L W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Sheffield United (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Swansea (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bristol City (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Preston (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Southampton (Goals: 1 - 1)

West Ham D D W W W

  • Last Match: D vs QPR (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Millwall (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Wrexham (Goals: 6 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bolton (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Derby (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lincoln

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.75
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 2

West Ham

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.75
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Lincoln a 20% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 22% and West Ham at 58%. West Ham are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 56% of cases.

Match Analysis

Lincoln arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLWWD from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 6 with 2 clean sheets. West Ham arrive with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDWWW from most recent), scoring 15 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Lincoln sit 16th with 11 points from 9 games and a goal difference of -4, while West Ham are 4th with 16 points and a goal difference of +11. That puts West Ham 5 points clear of their opponent. Lincoln average 0.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while West Ham average 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to results & dominance (11.4 points toward West Ham), home advantage (11.1 points toward Lincoln), attack (8.8 points toward West Ham). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lincoln
Goals in last 5 matches
West Ham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 51% and Over 2.5 at 49%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Lincoln matches produced 2.0 goals on average over their last 5, West Ham matches 4.0. Both teams to score comes in at 56%, no goal for at least one side at 44%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and West Ham attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.4 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lincoln
Corners in last 5 matches
West Ham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.1 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 57%, which leaves 43% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lincoln
Shots in last 5 matches
West Ham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.7 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lincoln wins by X goals. Negative = West Ham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lincoln vs West Ham with expected spread of -0.9
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lincoln vs West Ham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.9 goals in favour of West Ham. The spread model gives 12% to a Lincoln win by two goals or more and 60% to any West Ham win. A West Ham win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: West Ham win (58%), Under 2.5 (51%), Goal (56%). Expected totals: 10.1 corners and 25.7 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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