West Ham
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #18 of 20 in Premier League 39 pts · 10W–9D–19L · GD -19
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is West Ham?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, West Ham's results were 8.1% easier to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | West Ham | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 59.4% | 47.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 52.8% |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 53.5% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #17 | 1478 | 1488 | 1437 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #15 | 1471 | 1505 | 1438 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #13 | 1502 | 1583 | 1458 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #13 | 1467 | 1490 | 1446 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #11 | 1533 | 1609 | 1478 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #7 | 1467 | 1619 | 1566 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #14 | 1466 | 1541 | 1456 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #9 | 1477 | 1529 | 1519 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #11 | 1477 | 1477 | 1476 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #11 | 1482 | 1499 | 1470 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #7 | 1533 | 1626 | 1568 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #19 | 1471 | 1582 | 1380 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #2 | 1476 | 1650 | 1637 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Newcastle | L West Ham 20.6% · draw 20.6% | L ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | vs Arsenal | L West Ham 19.0% · draw 18.0% | L ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Brentford | L West Ham 25.5% · draw 23.8% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Everton | W West Ham 56.8% · draw 21.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 20, 2026 | at Crystal Palace | L West Ham 18.9% · draw 19.3% | D ✗ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs Wolves | W West Ham 57.9% · draw 21.0% | W ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Aston Villa | L West Ham 16.9% · draw 17.9% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Manchester City | L West Ham 16.5% · draw 16.2% | D ✗ |
| Mar 04, 2026 | at Fulham | L West Ham 15.1% · draw 16.5% | W ✗ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | at Liverpool | L West Ham 7.2% · draw 9.4% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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