Championship 2026-2027: Preston vs Lincoln Prediction - 12 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Preston

Home Team
39%
VS

Lincoln

Away Team
30%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 26.4
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Preston

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Preston
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.7 Lincoln
Attack +2.7 Preston
Defense +1.4 Lincoln

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Preston. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Preston attack & chance creation +2.1 Under
Lincoln defense +1.6 Over
Form & results +1.3 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 West Brom 6 4 1 1 9 6 3 13
2 Southampton 6 3 2 1 14 7 7 11
3 West Ham 6 3 2 1 14 9 5 11
4 Swansea 6 3 2 1 8 4 4 11
5 QPR 6 3 2 1 7 4 3 11
6 Charlton 6 3 2 1 6 7 -1 11
7 Middlesbrough 5 3 1 1 8 5 3 10
8 Bristol City 5 3 1 1 9 7 2 10
9 Millwall 5 3 0 2 10 8 2 9
10 Norwich 6 3 0 3 10 9 1 9
11 Sheffield United 6 2 3 1 8 8 0 9
12 Wolves 5 2 2 1 13 10 3 8
13 Watford 6 2 2 2 6 7 -1 8
14 Wrexham 6 1 4 1 7 5 2 7
15 Birmingham 6 1 4 1 8 8 0 7
16 Stoke 6 2 1 3 9 10 -1 7
17 Portsmouth 5 2 0 3 7 8 -1 6
18 Blackburn 6 1 2 3 7 9 -2 5
19 Lincoln 5 1 2 2 4 6 -2 5
20 Cardiff 6 0 4 2 7 10 -3 4
21 Bolton 6 1 1 4 6 12 -6 4
22 Derby 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
23 Burnley 6 0 3 3 7 13 -6 3
24 Preston 6 1 0 5 6 12 -6 3

Recent Trends

Preston L W L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Watford (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Blackburn (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bristol City (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Charlton (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 3)

Lincoln D D W L L

  • Last Match: D vs Southampton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Blackburn (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bolton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Portsmouth (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Middlesbrough (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Preston

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.33
Clean Sheets 0

Lincoln

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Preston a 39% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Lincoln at 30%. This is a tight call, with Preston only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 49% of cases.

Match Analysis

Preston arrive with 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWLLL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 10 with 0 clean sheets. Lincoln arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDWLL from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 6 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Preston sit 24th with 3 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -6, while Lincoln are 19th with 5 points and a goal difference of -2. That puts Lincoln 2 points clear of their opponent. Preston average 1.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over their last five home games, while Lincoln average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Preston), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (5.7 points toward Lincoln), attack (2.7 points toward Preston). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Preston
Goals in last 5 matches
Lincoln
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 51% and Over 2.5 at 49%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Preston matches produced 3.0 goals on average over their last 5, Lincoln matches 2.0. Both teams to score comes in at 49%, no goal for at least one side at 51%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Preston attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.1 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Preston
Corners in last 5 matches
Lincoln
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.9 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 47%, which leaves 53% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Preston
Shots in last 5 matches
Lincoln
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Preston wins by X goals. Negative = Lincoln wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Preston vs Lincoln with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Preston vs Lincoln
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Preston. The spread model gives 24% to a Preston win by two goals or more and 42% to any Lincoln win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Preston win (39%), Under 2.5 (51%), No Goal (51%). Expected totals: 9.9 corners and 26.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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