Championship 2026-2027: QPR vs Derby Prediction - 14 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

QPR

Home Team
51%
VS

Derby

Away Team
22%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 26.4
Expected Spread: +0.4

Why the Model Leans QPR

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 QPR
Attack +2.9 QPR
Defense +2.6 QPR
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.8 QPR

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 70% for QPR. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
QPR attack & chance creation +2.4 Over
Form & results +2.1 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.6 Over
QPR defense +1.2 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Swansea 9 6 2 1 15 7 8 20
2 Middlesbrough 9 5 3 1 17 12 5 18
3 Southampton 9 5 2 2 20 10 10 17
4 West Ham 9 4 4 1 23 12 11 16
5 Stoke 9 5 1 3 15 13 2 16
6 Wolves 8 4 2 2 15 11 4 14
7 QPR 9 3 5 1 11 8 3 14
8 Birmingham 9 3 5 1 13 11 2 14
9 Millwall 9 4 2 3 16 15 1 14
10 West Brom 9 4 2 3 10 9 1 14
11 Bristol City 9 4 2 3 12 13 -1 14
12 Charlton 9 3 4 2 8 11 -3 13
13 Blackburn 9 3 3 3 14 13 1 12
14 Sheffield United 9 3 3 3 12 11 1 12
15 Wrexham 9 2 5 2 10 13 -3 11
16 Lincoln 9 3 2 4 7 11 -4 11
17 Bolton 9 3 1 5 12 17 -5 10
18 Norwich 9 3 0 6 17 19 -2 9
19 Portsmouth 8 2 2 4 9 11 -2 8
20 Watford 9 2 2 5 7 14 -7 8
21 Cardiff 9 1 4 4 11 14 -3 7
22 Burnley 9 1 4 4 13 17 -4 7
23 Derby 9 1 3 5 8 15 -7 6
24 Preston 9 1 1 7 8 16 -8 4

Recent Trends

QPR D D D D L

  • Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Preston (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs West Brom (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Charlton (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Middlesbrough (Goals: 0 - 1)

Derby D D L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Wrexham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Birmingham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs West Brom (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

QPR

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Derby

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.50
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives QPR a 51% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 28% and Derby at 22%. QPR are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 51% of cases.

Match Analysis

QPR arrive with 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DDDDL from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 5 with 1 clean sheet. Derby arrive with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDLLL from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 8 with 0 clean sheets. In the table QPR sit 7th with 14 points from 9 games and a goal difference of +3, while Derby are 23rd with 6 points and a goal difference of -7. That puts QPR 8 points clear of their opponent. QPR average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Derby average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward QPR), attack (2.9 points toward QPR), defense (2.6 points toward QPR). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

QPR
Goals in last 5 matches
Derby
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 47% and Over 2.5 at 53%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: QPR matches produced 1.8 goals on average over their last 5, Derby matches 2.2. Both teams to score comes in at 51%, no goal for at least one side at 49%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and QPR attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.4 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

QPR
Corners in last 5 matches
Derby
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 56%, which leaves 44% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

QPR
Shots in last 5 matches
Derby
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = QPR wins by X goals. Negative = Derby wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for QPR vs Derby with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for QPR vs Derby
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of QPR. The spread model gives 28% to a QPR win by two goals or more and 37% to any Derby win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: QPR win (51%), Over 2.5 (53%), Goal (51%). Expected totals: 10.2 corners and 26.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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