Championship 2026-2027: Swansea vs Burnley Prediction - 12 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Swansea

Home Team
44%
VS

Burnley

Away Team
26%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.5
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Swansea

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Swansea
Defense +2.2 Swansea
Results & dominance +1.9 Burnley
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.5 Swansea

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 63% for Swansea. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Swansea defense +3.4 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Burnley defense +2.4 Over
Swansea attack & chance creation +1.5 Over
Burnley attack & chance creation +0.8 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 West Brom 6 4 1 1 9 6 3 13
2 Southampton 6 3 2 1 14 7 7 11
3 West Ham 6 3 2 1 14 9 5 11
4 Swansea 6 3 2 1 8 4 4 11
5 QPR 6 3 2 1 7 4 3 11
6 Charlton 6 3 2 1 6 7 -1 11
7 Middlesbrough 5 3 1 1 8 5 3 10
8 Bristol City 5 3 1 1 9 7 2 10
9 Millwall 5 3 0 2 10 8 2 9
10 Norwich 6 3 0 3 10 9 1 9
11 Sheffield United 6 2 3 1 8 8 0 9
12 Wolves 5 2 2 1 13 10 3 8
13 Watford 6 2 2 2 6 7 -1 8
14 Wrexham 6 1 4 1 7 5 2 7
15 Birmingham 6 1 4 1 8 8 0 7
16 Stoke 6 2 1 3 9 10 -1 7
17 Portsmouth 5 2 0 3 7 8 -1 6
18 Blackburn 6 1 2 3 7 9 -2 5
19 Lincoln 5 1 2 2 4 6 -2 5
20 Cardiff 6 0 4 2 7 10 -3 4
21 Bolton 6 1 1 4 6 12 -6 4
22 Derby 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
23 Burnley 6 0 3 3 7 13 -6 3
24 Preston 6 1 0 5 6 12 -6 3

Recent Trends

Swansea L D W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Southampton (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Wrexham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Watford (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Derby (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sheffield United (Goals: 0 - 0)

Burnley D L D L L

  • Last Match: D vs Wrexham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bristol City (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Middlesbrough (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Norwich (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs West Brom (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Swansea

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.00
Clean Sheets 4

Burnley

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.67
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Swansea a 44% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Burnley at 26%. This is a tight call, with Swansea only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 51% of cases.

Match Analysis

Swansea arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (LDWWD from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 3 with 4 clean sheets. Burnley arrive with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLDLL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 11 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Swansea sit 4th with 11 points from 6 games and a goal difference of +4, while Burnley are 23rd with 3 points and a goal difference of -6. That puts Swansea 8 points clear of their opponent. Swansea average 0.7 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Burnley average 1.0 scored and 2.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Swansea), defense (2.2 points toward Swansea), results & dominance (1.9 points toward Burnley). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Swansea
Goals in last 5 matches
Burnley
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 52% and Over 2.5 at 48%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Swansea matches produced 1.8 goals on average over their last 5, Burnley matches 3.2. Both teams to score comes in at 51%, no goal for at least one side at 49%. In the model's own attribution, Swansea defense pulls toward Under by 3.4 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Swansea
Corners in last 5 matches
Burnley
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.4 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Swansea
Shots in last 5 matches
Burnley
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.5 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Swansea wins by X goals. Negative = Burnley wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Swansea vs Burnley with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Swansea vs Burnley
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.2 goals in favour of Swansea. The spread model gives 25% to a Swansea win by two goals or more and 40% to any Burnley win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Swansea win (44%), Under 2.5 (52%), Goal (51%). Expected totals: 9.4 corners and 25.5 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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