Swansea
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #2 of 24 75.8 expected pts · currently 10 pts after 4 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #11 of 24 in Championship 64 pts · 18W-10D-18L · GD -2
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Swansea?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Swansea's results were 5.6% easier to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Swansea | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 63.4% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 39.0% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 36.6% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Championship | #5 | 1562 | 1598 | 1598 |
| 2025-26 | Championship | #6 | 1482 | 1552 | 1552 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #7 | 1480 | 1573 | 1548 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #14 | 1562 | 1562 | 1491 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #5 | 1494 | 1586 | 1586 |
| 2021-22 | Championship | #11 | 1497 | 1562 | 1494 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #9 | 1566 | 1690 | 1523 |
| 2019-20 | Championship | #8 | 1527 | 1616 | 1552 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #10 | 1597 | 1609 | 1512 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #20 | 1502 | 1502 | 1361 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #10 | 1529 | 1529 | 1476 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #9 | 1502 | 1541 | 1535 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #8 | 1529 | 1575 | 1524 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #3 | 1498 | 1634 | 1593 |
| 2009-10 | Championship | #10 | 1509 | 1644 | 1515 |
| 2008-09 | Championship | #8 | 1478 | 1641 | 1541 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #2 | 1536 | 1737 | 1622 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #6 | 1472 | 1601 | 1572 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #12 | 1518 | 1642 | 1502 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Charlton | W Swansea 37.9% · draw 31.5% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Norwich | L Swansea 18.7% · draw 25.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | at QPR | L Swansea 29.4% · draw 28.7% | W ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Southampton | L Swansea 24.2% · draw 26.6% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Leicester | L Swansea 19.6% · draw 24.8% | W ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Middlesbrough | L Swansea 28.5% · draw 29.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Sheffield United | L Swansea 24.8% · draw 28.6% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Coventry | L Swansea 29.9% · draw 29.4% | L ✓ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | at Wrexham | L Swansea 30.9% · draw 30.8% | L ✓ |
| Mar 10, 2026 | at Portsmouth | L Swansea 31.8% · draw 31.3% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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