Championship 2026-2027: West Ham vs QPR Prediction - 9 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

West Ham

Home Team
60%
VS

QPR

Away Team
16%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 10.4
Expected Shots: 27.2
Expected Spread: +0.8

Why the Model Leans West Ham

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 West Ham
Results & dominance +5.4 West Ham
Attack +4.3 West Ham
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.9 West Ham
Defense +2.9 West Ham

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 79% for West Ham. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.6 Over
QPR attack & chance creation +1.3 Over
Form & results +1.3 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Swansea 8 5 2 1 13 6 7 17
2 West Ham 8 4 3 1 22 11 11 15
3 Middlesbrough 8 4 3 1 16 12 4 15
4 Southampton 8 4 2 2 19 10 9 14
5 Wolves 7 4 2 1 15 10 5 14
6 West Brom 8 4 2 2 10 8 2 14
7 QPR 8 3 4 1 10 7 3 13
8 Stoke 8 4 1 3 13 12 1 13
9 Bristol City 8 4 1 3 11 12 -1 13
10 Charlton 8 3 3 2 7 10 -3 12
11 Birmingham 8 2 5 1 12 11 1 11
12 Millwall 8 3 2 3 15 15 0 11
13 Lincoln 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11
14 Wrexham 8 2 4 2 9 12 -3 10
15 Bolton 8 3 1 4 11 15 -4 10
16 Blackburn 8 2 3 3 12 12 0 9
17 Norwich 8 3 0 5 16 17 -1 9
18 Sheffield United 8 2 3 3 9 11 -2 9
19 Portsmouth 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8
20 Watford 8 2 2 4 7 10 -3 8
21 Cardiff 8 1 4 3 10 12 -2 7
22 Derby 8 1 2 5 7 14 -7 5
23 Preston 8 1 1 6 8 15 -7 4
24 Burnley 8 0 4 4 9 17 -8 4

Recent Trends

West Ham D W W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Millwall (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wrexham (Goals: 6 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bolton (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Derby (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 4 - 2)

QPR D D D L W

  • Last Match: D vs Preston (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs West Brom (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Charlton (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Middlesbrough (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cardiff (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

West Ham

Goals scored (avg, home) 3.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 2

QPR

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.75
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives West Ham a 60% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 23% and QPR at 16%. West Ham are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 50% and sees both teams scoring in 58% of cases.

Match Analysis

West Ham arrive with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (DWWWW from most recent), scoring 18 and conceding 6 with 2 clean sheets. QPR arrive with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DDDLW from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 5 with 1 clean sheet. In the table West Ham sit 2nd with 15 points from 8 games and a goal difference of +11, while QPR are 7th with 13 points and a goal difference of +3. That puts West Ham 2 points clear of their opponent. West Ham average 3.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while QPR average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward West Ham), results & dominance (5.4 points toward West Ham), attack (4.3 points toward West Ham). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

West Ham
Goals in last 5 matches
QPR
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 50% and Over 2.5 at 50%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: West Ham matches produced 4.8 goals on average over their last 5, QPR matches 2.0. Both teams to score comes in at 58%, no goal for at least one side at 42%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) pulls toward Over by 1.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

West Ham
Corners in last 5 matches
QPR
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.4 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

West Ham
Shots in last 5 matches
QPR
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 27.2 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 27. The chance of 27 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 28 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = West Ham wins by X goals. Negative = QPR wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for West Ham vs QPR with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for West Ham vs QPR
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.8 goals in favour of West Ham. The spread model gives 33% to a West Ham win by two goals or more and 31% to any QPR win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: West Ham win (60%), Over 2.5 (50%), Goal (58%). Expected totals: 10.4 corners and 27.2 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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