Championship 2026-2027: Wolves vs Bolton Prediction - 13 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Wolves

Home Team
76%
VS

Bolton

Away Team
8%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 25.6
Expected Spread: +1.1

Why the Model Leans Wolves

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Wolves
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +8.7 Wolves
Results & dominance +7.1 Wolves
Attack +7.0 Wolves
Defense +6.1 Wolves

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 90% for Wolves. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Bolton defense +2.0 Over
Bolton attack & chance creation +1.8 Over
Wolves attack & chance creation +1.6 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.9 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Swansea 9 6 2 1 15 7 8 20
2 Middlesbrough 9 5 3 1 17 12 5 18
3 Southampton 9 5 2 2 20 10 10 17
4 West Ham 9 4 4 1 23 12 11 16
5 Stoke 9 5 1 3 15 13 2 16
6 Wolves 8 4 2 2 15 11 4 14
7 QPR 9 3 5 1 11 8 3 14
8 Birmingham 9 3 5 1 13 11 2 14
9 Millwall 9 4 2 3 16 15 1 14
10 West Brom 9 4 2 3 10 9 1 14
11 Bristol City 9 4 2 3 12 13 -1 14
12 Charlton 9 3 4 2 8 11 -3 13
13 Blackburn 9 3 3 3 14 13 1 12
14 Sheffield United 9 3 3 3 12 11 1 12
15 Wrexham 9 2 5 2 10 13 -3 11
16 Lincoln 9 3 2 4 7 11 -4 11
17 Bolton 9 3 1 5 12 17 -5 10
18 Norwich 9 3 0 6 17 19 -2 9
19 Portsmouth 8 2 2 4 9 11 -2 8
20 Watford 9 2 2 5 7 14 -7 8
21 Cardiff 9 1 4 4 11 14 -3 7
22 Burnley 9 1 4 4 13 17 -4 7
23 Derby 9 1 3 5 8 15 -7 6
24 Preston 9 1 1 7 8 16 -8 4

Recent Trends

Wolves L W W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Middlesbrough (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs West Brom (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sheffield United (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Birmingham (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 4)

Bolton L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Stoke (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Norwich (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cardiff (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Millwall (Goals: 0 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wolves

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 2

Bolton

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.50
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Wolves a 76% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 15% and Bolton at 8%. Wolves are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 56% and sees both teams scoring in 54% of cases.

Match Analysis

Wolves arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWWDL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 7 with 2 clean sheets. Bolton arrive with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWWLL from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 12 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Wolves sit 6th with 14 points from 8 games and a goal difference of +4, while Bolton are 17th with 10 points and a goal difference of -5. That puts Wolves 4 points clear of their opponent. Wolves average 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Bolton average 1.5 scored and 2.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Wolves), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (8.7 points toward Wolves), results & dominance (7.1 points toward Wolves). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Wolves
Goals in last 5 matches
Bolton
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 44% and Over 2.5 at 56%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Wolves matches produced 2.6 goals on average over their last 5, Bolton matches 4.0. Both teams to score comes in at 54%, no goal for at least one side at 46%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Bolton defense pulls toward Over by 2.0 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Wolves
Corners in last 5 matches
Bolton
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Wolves
Shots in last 5 matches
Bolton
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Wolves wins by X goals. Negative = Bolton wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Wolves vs Bolton with expected spread of +1.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Wolves vs Bolton
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 1.1 goals in favour of Wolves. The spread model gives 36% to a Wolves win by two goals or more and 27% to any Bolton win. A Wolves win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Wolves win (76%), Over 2.5 (56%), Goal (54%). Expected totals: 10.3 corners and 25.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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