Wolves

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1328 · #19 Premier League 3W–11D–24L · 20 pts In line Updated May 18, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened

Final: #20 of 20 in Premier League 20 pts · 3W–11D–24L · GD -41

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Wolves?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Wolves's results were 7.5% easier to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketWolvesLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 53.1% 47.8%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 62.5% 52.8%
Both teams to score 31.2% 53.5%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Premier League #19 1466 1466 1328
2024-25 Premier League #14 1480 1532 1472
2023-24 Premier League #17 1482 1534 1408
2022-23 Premier League #14 1482 1487 1444
2021-22 Premier League #16 1482 1602 1420
2020-21 Premier League #14 1533 1544 1412
2019-20 Premier League #7 1502 1606 1551
2018-19 Premier League #7 1498 1556 1549
2017-18 Championship #2 1520 1728 1668
2016-17 Championship #13 1503 1562 1491
2015-16 Championship #13 1610 1610 1502
2014-15 Championship #5 1466 1638 1605
2013-14 League One #1 1502 1737 1730
2012-13 Championship #21 1570 1605 1415
2008-09 Championship #2 1561 1709 1627
2007-08 Championship #5 1525 1598 1577
2006-07 Championship #6 1529 1617 1564
2005-06 Championship #8 1502 1581 1536

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 vs Fulham L Wolves 31.0% · draw 24.9% D ✗
May 09, 2026 at Brighton L Wolves 12.4% · draw 14.2% L ✓
May 02, 2026 vs Sunderland W Wolves 57.0% · draw 21.1% D ✗
Apr 25, 2026 vs Tottenham L Wolves 36.9% · draw 24.0% L ✓
Apr 18, 2026 at Leeds L Wolves 16.4% · draw 17.5% L ✓
Apr 10, 2026 at West Ham L Wolves 21.1% · draw 21.0% L ✓
Mar 16, 2026 at Brentford L Wolves 16.0% · draw 17.2% D ✗
Mar 03, 2026 vs Liverpool L Wolves 21.3% · draw 19.5% W ✗
Feb 27, 2026 vs Aston Villa L Wolves 30.6% · draw 24.2% W ✗
Feb 22, 2026 at Crystal Palace L Wolves 16.9% · draw 17.8% L ✓

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