Wolves

Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1577 · #7 Championship 4W-2D-3L · 14 pts In line Updated Oct 14, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #8 of 24 67.7 expected pts · currently 14 pts after 9 matches

League title 1.2%
Promotion 9.0%
Automatic promotion 3.7%
Promotion playoffs 27.2%
Relegation 0.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Wolves?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Wolves's results were 6.3% easier to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketWolvesLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 60.7% 50.5%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 64.3% 52.7%
Both teams to score 28.6% 52.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Championship #7 1626 1650 1577
2025-26 Premier League #19 1466 1466 1328
2024-25 Premier League #14 1480 1532 1472
2023-24 Premier League #17 1482 1534 1408
2022-23 Premier League #14 1482 1487 1444
2021-22 Premier League #16 1482 1602 1420
2020-21 Premier League #14 1533 1544 1412
2019-20 Premier League #7 1502 1606 1551
2018-19 Premier League #7 1498 1556 1549
2017-18 Championship #2 1520 1728 1668
2016-17 Championship #13 1503 1562 1491
2015-16 Championship #13 1610 1610 1502
2014-15 Championship #5 1466 1638 1605
2013-14 League One #1 1502 1737 1730
2012-13 Championship #21 1570 1605 1415
2008-09 Championship #2 1561 1709 1627
2007-08 Championship #5 1525 1598 1577
2006-07 Championship #6 1529 1617 1564
2005-06 Championship #8 1502 1581 1536

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 13, 2026 vs Bolton W Wolves 76.4% · draw 15.3% L ✗
Oct 10, 2026 at Middlesbrough L Wolves 27.9% · draw 29.8% L ✓
Sep 20, 2026 vs West Brom W Wolves 55.8% · draw 25.8% W ✓
Sep 13, 2026 at Sheffield United W Wolves 39.9% · draw 28.9% W ✓

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