Championship 2026-2027: Wolves vs West Brom Prediction - 20 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Wolves

Home Team
56%
VS

West Brom

Away Team
18%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 23.5
Expected Spread: +0.7

Why the Model Leans Wolves

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Wolves
Attack +6.0 Wolves
Results & dominance +4.4 Wolves
Defense +4.0 Wolves
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.1 West Brom

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 75% for Wolves. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
West Brom attack & chance creation +1.7 Under
Wolves attack & chance creation +1.2 Under
Wolves defense +0.8 Over
Form & results +0.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 West Ham 7 4 2 1 20 9 11 14
2 Southampton 7 4 2 1 18 8 10 14
3 Swansea 7 4 2 1 11 5 6 14
4 Middlesbrough 7 4 2 1 14 10 4 14
5 West Brom 7 4 2 1 10 7 3 14
6 QPR 7 3 3 1 8 5 3 12
7 Charlton 7 3 3 1 6 7 -1 12
8 Wolves 6 3 2 1 14 10 4 11
9 Lincoln 7 3 2 2 6 6 0 11
10 Birmingham 7 2 4 1 10 9 1 10
11 Millwall 7 3 1 3 13 13 0 10
12 Stoke 7 3 1 3 11 11 0 10
13 Bristol City 7 3 1 3 10 12 -2 10
14 Norwich 7 3 0 4 13 13 0 9
15 Sheffield United 7 2 3 2 8 9 -1 9
16 Blackburn 7 2 2 3 10 10 0 8
17 Watford 7 2 2 3 7 9 -2 8
18 Portsmouth 6 2 1 3 7 8 -1 7
19 Wrexham 7 1 4 2 7 11 -4 7
20 Bolton 7 2 1 4 7 12 -5 7
21 Cardiff 7 0 4 3 7 11 -4 4
22 Derby 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4
23 Preston 7 1 0 6 6 13 -7 3
24 Burnley 7 0 3 4 8 16 -8 3

Recent Trends

Wolves W D L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Sheffield United (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Birmingham (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Stoke (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Preston (Goals: 3 - 1)

West Brom D W W D L

  • Last Match: D vs QPR (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Derby (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Watford (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Charlton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Middlesbrough (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wolves

Goals scored (avg, home) 3.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 1

West Brom

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.33
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Wolves a 56% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 26% and West Brom at 18%. Wolves are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 49% of cases.

Match Analysis

Wolves arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDLWW from most recent), scoring 12 and conceding 8 with 1 clean sheet. West Brom arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DWWDL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Wolves sit 8th with 11 points from 6 games and a goal difference of +4, while West Brom are 5th with 14 points and a goal difference of +3. That puts West Brom 3 points clear of their opponent. Wolves average 3.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while West Brom average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Wolves), attack (6.0 points toward Wolves), results & dominance (4.4 points toward Wolves). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Wolves
Goals in last 5 matches
West Brom
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Wolves matches produced 4.0 goals on average over their last 5, West Brom matches 2.0. Both teams to score comes in at 49%, no goal for at least one side at 51%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and West Brom attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 1.7 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Wolves
Corners in last 5 matches
West Brom
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.7 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Wolves
Shots in last 5 matches
West Brom
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.5 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Wolves wins by X goals. Negative = West Brom wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Wolves vs West Brom with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Wolves vs West Brom
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.7 goals in favour of Wolves. The spread model gives 32% to a Wolves win by two goals or more and 32% to any West Brom win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Wolves win (56%), Under 2.5 (54%), No Goal (51%). Expected totals: 9.7 corners and 23.5 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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