Championship 2026-2027: Wrexham vs West Brom Prediction - 13 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Wrexham

Home Team
40%
VS

West Brom

Away Team
29%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 23.7
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Wrexham

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Wrexham
Results & dominance +3.7 West Brom
Defense +2.0 West Brom
Attack +1.2 Wrexham
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.0 West Brom

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Wrexham. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
West Brom defense +2.6 Over
Wrexham attack & chance creation +2.2 Under
Form & results +1.4 Over
West Brom attack & chance creation +1.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Swansea 9 6 2 1 15 7 8 20
2 Middlesbrough 9 5 3 1 17 12 5 18
3 Southampton 9 5 2 2 20 10 10 17
4 West Ham 9 4 4 1 23 12 11 16
5 Stoke 9 5 1 3 15 13 2 16
6 Wolves 8 4 2 2 15 11 4 14
7 QPR 9 3 5 1 11 8 3 14
8 Birmingham 9 3 5 1 13 11 2 14
9 Millwall 9 4 2 3 16 15 1 14
10 West Brom 9 4 2 3 10 9 1 14
11 Bristol City 9 4 2 3 12 13 -1 14
12 Charlton 9 3 4 2 8 11 -3 13
13 Blackburn 9 3 3 3 14 13 1 12
14 Sheffield United 9 3 3 3 12 11 1 12
15 Wrexham 9 2 5 2 10 13 -3 11
16 Lincoln 9 3 2 4 7 11 -4 11
17 Bolton 9 3 1 5 12 17 -5 10
18 Norwich 9 3 0 6 17 19 -2 9
19 Portsmouth 8 2 2 4 9 11 -2 8
20 Watford 9 2 2 5 7 14 -7 8
21 Cardiff 9 1 4 4 11 14 -3 7
22 Burnley 9 1 4 4 13 17 -4 7
23 Derby 9 1 3 5 8 15 -7 6
24 Preston 9 1 1 7 8 16 -8 4

Recent Trends

Wrexham D W L D D

  • Last Match: D vs Derby (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Southampton (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 6)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Swansea (Goals: 0 - 0)

West Brom L L D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Birmingham (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Wolves (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs QPR (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Derby (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Watford (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wrexham

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.25
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.25
Clean Sheets 1

West Brom

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.25
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Wrexham a 40% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and West Brom at 29%. This is a tight call, with Wrexham only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 47% of cases.

Match Analysis

Wrexham arrive with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DWLDD from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 9 with 1 clean sheet. West Brom arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLDWW from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 3 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Wrexham sit 15th with 11 points from 9 games and a goal difference of -3, while West Brom are 10th with 14 points and a goal difference of +1. That puts West Brom 3 points clear of their opponent. Wrexham average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five home games, while West Brom average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Wrexham), results & dominance (3.7 points toward West Brom), defense (2.0 points toward West Brom). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Wrexham
Goals in last 5 matches
West Brom
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 51% and Over 2.5 at 49%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Wrexham matches produced 2.6 goals on average over their last 5, West Brom matches 1.2. Both teams to score comes in at 47%, no goal for at least one side at 53%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and West Brom defense pulls toward Over by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Wrexham
Corners in last 5 matches
West Brom
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.6 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Wrexham
Shots in last 5 matches
West Brom
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.7 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Wrexham wins by X goals. Negative = West Brom wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Wrexham vs West Brom with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Wrexham vs West Brom
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.2 goals in favour of Wrexham. The spread model gives 25% to a Wrexham win by two goals or more and 41% to any West Brom win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Wrexham win (40%), Under 2.5 (51%), No Goal (53%). Expected totals: 9.6 corners and 23.7 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel