La Liga 2025-2026: Ath Bilbao vs Celta Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Ath Bilbao

Home Team
55%
VS

Celta

Away Team
23%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 23.0
Expected Spread: +0.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 36 30 1 5 91 32 59 91
2 Real Madrid 36 25 5 6 72 33 39 80
3 Villarreal 36 21 6 9 67 43 24 69
4 Ath Madrid 36 20 6 10 60 39 21 66
5 Betis 36 14 15 7 56 44 12 57
6 Celta 36 13 11 12 51 47 4 50
7 Getafe 36 14 6 16 31 37 -6 48
8 Sociedad 36 11 12 13 55 56 -1 45
9 Betis 36 13 5 18 40 53 -13 44
10 Vallecano 36 10 14 12 37 43 -6 44
11 Valencia 36 11 10 15 39 51 -12 43
12 Sevilla 36 12 7 17 46 58 -12 43
13 Osasuna 36 11 9 16 43 47 -4 42
14 Espanol 36 11 9 16 40 53 -13 42
15 Girona 36 9 13 14 38 53 -15 40
16 Alaves 36 10 10 16 42 54 -12 40
17 Elche 36 9 12 15 47 56 -9 39
18 Mallorca 36 10 9 17 44 55 -11 39
19 Levante 36 10 9 17 44 59 -15 39
20 Oviedo 36 6 11 19 26 56 -30 29

Recent Trends

Ath Bilbao L L W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 0)

Celta L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ath Bilbao

xG (avg) 1.15
xGA (avg) 1.12
Clean Sheets 1

Celta

xG (avg) 1.10
xGA (avg) 1.87
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Athletic Bilbao are slight but clear favourites at San Mamés, with a 55.0% chance of victory against Celta’s 23.0%, and a 22.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a home win and an over 2.5 prediction for goals. Celta come into this one in 6th place on 50 points, chasing the Champions League spots, while Athletic are outside the top six and desperate to keep pace in the European battle.

Match Analysis

Athletic’s last three outings have been mixed: a 4-2 away win at Alavés was followed by back-to-back defeats without scoring, 0-1 at home to Valencia and 0-2 away at Espanyol. The pattern is of a side that can generate pressure – 13 corners and 14 shots against Valencia, 9 corners at Espanyol – but have lacked a cutting edge in two of those three games. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged just 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with xG of 1.146 for and 1.12 against, suggesting a team that usually creates enough but hasn’t consistently finished chances. Celta, 6th and still within reach of the top five, arrive with two wins from their last three but also a stinging 3-2 home loss to Levante. They beat Atlético Madrid 1-0 in a smash-and-grab, taking just 3 shots to Atleti’s 20, and then overpowered Elche 3-1 despite again allowing 15 shots. Their five-game averages tell the story: 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, but an xG conceded of 1.868 – a warning sign that they’re giving up plenty of chances and relying on opponents’ wastefulness.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ath Bilbao
Goals in last 5 matches
Celta
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to an over 2.5 prediction with a 50.0% probability, narrowly favouring goals. Two of Athletic’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (the 4-2 at Alavés and the 0-2 at Espanyol totals), while two of Celta’s last three also cleared the line (3-2 v Levante, 3-1 v Elche). With both sides’ recent averages hovering around 1–1.2 goals scored and around 1–1.2 conceded, plus Celta’s high xG against, another open contest feels more likely than a tight under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ath Bilbao
Corners in last 5 matches
Celta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.61 total, pointing towards a game with a decent but not extreme number of set-piece opportunities. Athletic’s last three matches have produced 17, 18 and 11 corners respectively, reflecting their tendency to pile on pressure with crosses and wide play. Celta’s games have been calmer in this regard – 8, 6 and 6 corners – so the predicted corners number suggests Athletic’s aggressive home approach will push the total towards double figures.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ath Bilbao
Shots in last 5 matches
Celta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.01, in line with what both sides have been involved in recently. Athletic’s last three matches featured 23, 21 and 16 shots combined, while Celta’s produced 25, 23 and 17. This shots prediction fits with the xG profiles: both teams create around one expected goal per game but Celta allow a lot, so an open shot count with Bilbao on the front foot is likely.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Ath Bilbao wins by X goals. Negative = Celta wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Ath Bilbao vs Celta with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Ath Bilbao vs Celta
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at +0.49 in favour of Athletic, indicating the home side are expected to win by roughly half a goal on average. Recently Bilbao have a combined goal difference of +1 across their last three (4 scored, 5 conceded), while Celta are also +1 (6 scored, 5 conceded) but with more defensive leakage in the underlying numbers. The expected spread lines up with the 55.0% home-win probability and the sense that Athletic’s more solid defensive base can edge Celta’s riskier, open approach.

Final Prediction

Athletic Bilbao have the edge through home advantage, a tighter defensive record in recent weeks and more stable underlying numbers, even if results have been patchy. Celta’s attacking threat is real, but their high shots and xG conceded could be exposed at San Mamés. The key factor to watch is whether Celta’s back line can withstand Athletic’s sustained pressure from wide areas over 90 minutes.

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