Atlético Madrid
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#11 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Sep 04, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #3 of 20 62.7 expected pts · currently 7 pts after 3 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #4 of 20 in La Liga 69 pts · 21W-6D-11L · GD +18
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Atlético Madrid?
On script 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Atlético Madrid's results were 25.8% easier to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Atlético Madrid | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 68.8% | 51.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | 58.6% |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 56.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | #3 | 1520 | 1554 | 1554 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | #4 | 1482 | 1645 | 1557 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | #5 | 1502 | 1671 | 1612 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | #4 | 1520 | 1634 | 1610 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | #1 | 1534 | 1690 | 1662 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | #2 | 1529 | 1631 | 1631 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | #2 | 1526 | 1721 | 1678 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | #3 | 1518 | 1666 | 1657 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | #2 | 1502 | 1681 | 1628 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | #3 | 1502 | 1707 | 1621 |
| 2016-17 | La Liga | #3 | 1498 | 1690 | 1678 |
| 2015-16 | La Liga | #3 | 1518 | 1728 | 1691 |
| 2014-15 | La Liga | #4 | 1502 | 1687 | 1645 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Girona | W Atlético Madrid 70.4% · draw 15.5% | W ✓ |
| May 12, 2026 | at Osasuna | W Atlético Madrid 48.3% · draw 23.6% | W ✓ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Celta Vigo | W Atlético Madrid 70.3% · draw 15.6% | L ✗ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Valencia | L Atlético Madrid 36.3% · draw 24.9% | W ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Athletic Bilbao | W Atlético Madrid 70.2% · draw 15.6% | W ✓ |
| Apr 22, 2026 | at Elche | W Atlético Madrid 69.4% · draw 15.3% | L ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Sevilla | W Atlético Madrid 53.3% · draw 21.8% | L ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | vs Barcelona | L Atlético Madrid 27.4% · draw 21.1% | L ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Real Madrid | L Atlético Madrid 17.6% · draw 17.8% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Getafe | W Atlético Madrid 84.8% · draw 8.7% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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