Atlético Madrid

La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1557 · #4 La Liga On script Updated May 17, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #5 of 20 56.0 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 4.0%
Champions League 27.4%
Europa League 15.3%
Relegation 5.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Atlético Madrid?

On script 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Atlético Madrid's results were 25.8% easier to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.

MarketAtlético MadridLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 68.8% 51.1%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 62.5% 58.6%
Both teams to score 53.1% 56.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 La Liga #4 1482 1645 1557
2024-25 La Liga #5 1502 1671 1612
2023-24 La Liga #4 1520 1634 1610
2022-23 La Liga #1 1534 1690 1662
2021-22 La Liga #2 1529 1631 1631
2020-21 La Liga #2 1526 1721 1678
2019-20 La Liga #3 1518 1666 1657
2018-19 La Liga #2 1502 1681 1628
2017-18 La Liga #3 1502 1707 1621
2016-17 La Liga #3 1498 1690 1678
2015-16 La Liga #3 1518 1728 1691
2014-15 La Liga #4 1502 1687 1645

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 vs Girona W Atlético Madrid 70.4% · draw 15.5% W ✓
May 12, 2026 at Osasuna W Atlético Madrid 48.3% · draw 23.6% W ✓
May 09, 2026 vs Celta Vigo W Atlético Madrid 70.3% · draw 15.6% L ✗
May 02, 2026 at Valencia L Atlético Madrid 36.3% · draw 24.9% W ✗
Apr 25, 2026 vs Athletic Bilbao W Atlético Madrid 70.2% · draw 15.6% W ✓
Apr 22, 2026 at Elche W Atlético Madrid 69.4% · draw 15.3% L ✗
Apr 11, 2026 at Sevilla W Atlético Madrid 53.3% · draw 21.8% L ✗
Apr 04, 2026 vs Barcelona L Atlético Madrid 27.4% · draw 21.1% L ✓
Mar 22, 2026 at Real Madrid L Atlético Madrid 17.6% · draw 17.8% L ✓
Mar 14, 2026 vs Getafe W Atlético Madrid 84.8% · draw 8.7% W ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

The La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/atletico-madrid">La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in): 

<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/la_liga"
        width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
        title="La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings — Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/atletico-madrid">La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>
Preview widget All widgets