Celta Vigo

La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1492 · #10 La Liga Chaos club Updated May 17, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #9 of 20 51.6 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 1.7%
Champions League 15.4%
Europa League 11.1%
Relegation 11.6%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Celta Vigo?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 31 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Celta Vigo's results were 24.3% harder to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.

MarketCelta VigoLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 41.9% 51.1%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 41.9% 58.6%
Both teams to score 64.5% 56.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 La Liga #10 1467 1588 1492
2024-25 La Liga #8 1518 1546 1535
2023-24 La Liga #10 1467 1499 1494
2022-23 La Liga #17 1498 1541 1433
2021-22 La Liga #11 1471 1541 1464
2020-21 La Liga #6 1502 1587 1557
2019-20 La Liga #16 1467 1499 1417
2018-19 La Liga #14 1498 1549 1461
2017-18 La Liga #12 1471 1553 1494
2016-17 La Liga #16 1471 1530 1404
2015-16 La Liga #5 1529 1610 1535
2014-15 La Liga #7 1520 1567 1536

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 at Athletic Bilbao L Celta Vigo 22.6% · draw 21.9% D ✗
May 12, 2026 vs Levante W Celta Vigo 58.8% · draw 20.6% L ✗
May 09, 2026 at Atlético Madrid L Celta Vigo 14.1% · draw 15.6% W ✗
May 03, 2026 vs Elche W Celta Vigo 66.5% · draw 17.3% W ✓
Apr 26, 2026 at Villarreal L Celta Vigo 17.9% · draw 18.6% L ✓
Apr 22, 2026 at Barcelona L Celta Vigo 6.4% · draw 8.5% L ✓
Apr 12, 2026 vs Real Oviedo W Celta Vigo 68.4% · draw 16.5% L ✗
Apr 05, 2026 at Valencia L Celta Vigo 35.5% · draw 24.6% W ✗
Mar 22, 2026 vs Alaves W Celta Vigo 58.4% · draw 20.8% L ✗
Mar 15, 2026 at Real Betis L Celta Vigo 25.0% · draw 23.5% D ✗

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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