Elche
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #16 of 20 41.5 expected pts · currently 6 pts after 8 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #13 of 20 in La Liga 43 pts · 10W-13D-15L · GD -8
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Elche?
On script 2025-26 · 30 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Elche's results were 12.7% easier to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Elche | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 56.7% | 51.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 66.7% | 58.2% |
| Both teams to score | 70.0% | 55.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | #17 | 1502 | 1502 | 1451 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | #12 | 1498 | 1545 | 1467 |
| 2024-25 | Segunda División | #3 | 1432 | 1665 | 1631 |
| 2023-24 | Segunda División | #21 | 1503 | 1607 | 1445 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | #20 | 1478 | 1478 | 1413 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | #14 | 1498 | 1508 | 1445 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | #14 | 1466 | 1535 | 1424 |
| 2019-20 | Segunda División | #8 | 1485 | 1583 | 1544 |
| 2018-19 | Segunda División | #12 | 1497 | 1557 | 1526 |
| 2014-15 | La Liga | #12 | 1478 | 1508 | 1454 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs Celta Vigo | L Elche 32.9% · draw 26.8% | D ✗ |
| Sep 18, 2026 | at Espanyol | L Elche 19.8% · draw 23.1% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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