Valencia
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #19 of 20 39.4 expected pts · currently 5 pts after 8 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #9 of 20 in La Liga 49 pts · 13W-10D-15L · GD -9
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Valencia?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 30 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Valencia's results were 2.9% easier to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Valencia | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.7% | 51.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 73.3% | 58.2% |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 55.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | #19 | 1498 | 1498 | 1431 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | #8 | 1498 | 1517 | 1508 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | #10 | 1471 | 1564 | 1521 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | #14 | 1529 | 1562 | 1444 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | #12 | 1518 | 1527 | 1462 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | #12 | 1518 | 1568 | 1462 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | #11 | 1520 | 1530 | 1465 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | #13 | 1498 | 1569 | 1456 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | #3 | 1498 | 1616 | 1602 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | #4 | 1518 | 1664 | 1576 |
| 2016-17 | La Liga | #11 | 1467 | 1529 | 1485 |
| 2015-16 | La Liga | #15 | 1502 | 1552 | 1434 |
| 2014-15 | La Liga | #3 | 1502 | 1675 | 1663 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | at Santander | L Valencia 28.8% · draw 27.4% | D ✗ |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Real Sociedad | W Valencia 37.4% · draw 28.4% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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