Valencia

La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1508 · #8 La Liga In line Updated May 17, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #13 of 20 50.4 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 1.2%
Champions League 12.0%
Europa League 10.1%
Relegation 13.9%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Valencia?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Valencia's results were 5.6% harder to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.

MarketValenciaLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 40.6% 51.1%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 65.6% 58.6%
Both teams to score 62.5% 56.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 La Liga #8 1498 1517 1508
2024-25 La Liga #10 1471 1564 1521
2023-24 La Liga #14 1529 1562 1444
2022-23 La Liga #12 1518 1527 1462
2021-22 La Liga #12 1518 1568 1462
2020-21 La Liga #11 1520 1530 1465
2019-20 La Liga #13 1498 1569 1456
2018-19 La Liga #3 1498 1616 1602
2017-18 La Liga #4 1518 1664 1576
2016-17 La Liga #11 1467 1529 1485
2015-16 La Liga #15 1502 1552 1434
2014-15 La Liga #3 1502 1675 1663

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 at Real Sociedad L Valencia 26.5% · draw 24.1% W ✗
May 14, 2026 vs Rayo Vallecano W Valencia 44.0% · draw 25.5% D ✗
May 10, 2026 at Athletic Bilbao L Valencia 18.9% · draw 19.4% W ✗
May 02, 2026 vs Atlético Madrid W Valencia 38.8% · draw 24.9% L ✗
Apr 25, 2026 vs Girona W Valencia 58.1% · draw 20.9% W ✓
Apr 21, 2026 at Mallorca L Valencia 35.5% · draw 24.8% D ✗
Apr 11, 2026 at Elche W Valencia 43.6% · draw 24.0% L ✗
Apr 05, 2026 vs Celta Vigo W Valencia 39.9% · draw 24.6% L ✗
Mar 21, 2026 at Sevilla W Valencia 47.5% · draw 23.9% W ✓
Mar 14, 2026 at Real Oviedo W Valencia 46.0% · draw 24.4% L ✗

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

The La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/valencia">La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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