Athletic Bilbao

La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1424 · #18 La Liga In line Updated May 17, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #16 of 20 45.8 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 0.4%
Champions League 5.7%
Europa League 5.7%
Relegation 28.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Athletic Bilbao?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Athletic Bilbao's results were 2.6% harder to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.

MarketAthletic BilbaoLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 50.0% 51.1%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 56.2% 58.6%
Both teams to score 56.2% 56.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 La Liga #18 1518 1565 1424
2024-25 La Liga #4 1498 1664 1632
2023-24 La Liga #5 1467 1648 1594
2022-23 La Liga #15 1498 1564 1441
2021-22 La Liga #8 1502 1561 1520
2020-21 La Liga #9 1480 1567 1483
2019-20 La Liga #11 1518 1563 1471
2018-19 La Liga #6 1518 1589 1528
2017-18 La Liga #16 1498 1548 1429
2016-17 La Liga #6 1482 1622 1572
2015-16 La Liga #4 1471 1593 1590
2014-15 La Liga #6 1482 1584 1584

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 vs Celta Vigo W Athletic Bilbao 55.5% · draw 21.9% D ✗
May 13, 2026 at Espanyol W Athletic Bilbao 53.6% · draw 21.7% L ✗
May 10, 2026 vs Valencia W Athletic Bilbao 61.7% · draw 19.4% L ✗
May 02, 2026 at Alaves L Athletic Bilbao 31.9% · draw 24.7% W ✗
Apr 25, 2026 at Atlético Madrid L Athletic Bilbao 14.2% · draw 15.6% L ✓
Apr 21, 2026 vs Osasuna W Athletic Bilbao 60.2% · draw 20.0% W ✓
Apr 12, 2026 vs Villarreal W Athletic Bilbao 47.0% · draw 23.5% L ✗
Apr 05, 2026 at Getafe W Athletic Bilbao 38.7% · draw 26.1% L ✗
Mar 22, 2026 vs Real Betis W Athletic Bilbao 38.6% · draw 25.5% W ✓
Mar 14, 2026 at Girona W Athletic Bilbao 49.8% · draw 23.1% L ✗

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/athletic-bilbao">La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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