Athletic Bilbao
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #10 of 20 48.6 expected pts · currently 8 pts after 6 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #12 of 20 in La Liga 45 pts · 13W-6D-19L · GD -15
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Athletic Bilbao?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 30 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Athletic Bilbao's results were 2.1% easier to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Athletic Bilbao | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.7% | 51.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | 58.2% |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 55.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | #7 | 1469 | 1518 | 1509 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | #18 | 1518 | 1565 | 1424 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | #4 | 1498 | 1664 | 1632 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | #5 | 1467 | 1648 | 1594 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | #15 | 1498 | 1564 | 1441 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | #8 | 1502 | 1561 | 1520 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | #9 | 1480 | 1567 | 1483 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | #11 | 1518 | 1563 | 1471 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | #6 | 1518 | 1589 | 1528 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | #16 | 1498 | 1548 | 1429 |
| 2016-17 | La Liga | #6 | 1482 | 1622 | 1572 |
| 2015-16 | La Liga | #4 | 1471 | 1593 | 1590 |
| 2014-15 | La Liga | #6 | 1482 | 1584 | 1584 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/athletic-bilbao">La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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