La Liga 2025-2026: Ath Bilbao vs Elche Prediction - 20 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Ath Bilbao

Home Team
85%
VS

Elche

Away Team
7%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 26.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Real Madrid 24 19 3 2 53 19 34 60
2 Barcelona 24 19 1 4 64 25 39 58
3 Villarreal 24 15 3 6 45 26 19 48
4 Ath Madrid 24 13 6 5 38 21 17 45
5 Betis 24 11 8 5 39 29 10 41
6 Espanol 24 10 5 9 29 33 -4 35
7 Celta 24 8 10 6 32 27 5 34
8 Sociedad 24 8 7 9 34 35 -1 31
9 Betis 24 9 4 11 27 34 -7 31
10 Osasuna 24 8 6 10 28 28 0 30
11 Getafe 24 8 5 11 20 28 -8 29
12 Girona 24 7 8 9 24 38 -14 29
13 Sevilla 24 7 5 12 31 39 -8 26
14 Alaves 24 7 5 12 21 30 -9 26
15 Valencia 24 6 8 10 25 37 -12 26
16 Elche 24 5 10 9 31 35 -4 25
17 Vallecano 23 6 7 10 21 30 -9 25
18 Mallorca 24 6 6 12 29 39 -10 24
19 Levante 24 4 6 14 26 41 -15 18
20 Oviedo 23 3 7 13 13 36 -23 16

Recent Trends

Ath Bilbao W W D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 3)

Elche D L L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ath Bilbao

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.50
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.25
# Clean Sheets: 0

Elche

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.19
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Athletic Bilbao are clear favourites here, with an 85.0% probability of a home win against an Elche side sitting 16th and hovering just above the relegation battle, while Athletic chase the European pack from mid-table. The model leans towards a tight game in terms of scoring, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a 51.0% chance that both teams get on the scoresheet. A home victory combined with a relatively controlled scoreline is the likeliest scenario.

Match Analysis

Athletic come into this one on a three-match unbeaten run: a 2-1 away win at bottom-side Oviedo, a high-scoring 4-2 home win over Levante, and a 1-1 draw against Sociedad. Those games show an improving attacking rhythm (7 goals across 3 matches) and a strong grip on territory, reflected in consistent shot advantages (13-7, 22-6, 19-9). However, they have yet to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches, underlined by an average of 1.6 goals conceded in that span. Elche’s form is much more fragile: two successive 1-3 defeats to Barcelona and Sociedad, followed by a 0-0 home draw with Osasuna. They’ve struggled badly in both boxes, allowing 2.2 goals per game in their last five, while scoring just 1.0 on average. The advanced numbers underline the gap in quality: Elche’s recent expected goals for is only 0.544 per game, versus 2.194 xG against, suggesting they’re consistently outplayed, whereas Athletic’s xG profile (1.498 for, 1.252 against) points to a side that generally creates more than it concedes.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ath Bilbao
Goals in last 5 matches
Elche
Goals in last 5 matches
The model slightly favours an under 2.5 result, even though the probability of over 2.5 prediction is reasonably balanced at 49.0%. Two of Athletic’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (4-2 vs Levante, 2-1 vs Oviedo), with only the 1-1 vs Sociedad staying under. Elche, meanwhile, have had two of their last three go over 2.5 (both 1-3 defeats) and one under (0-0 vs Osasuna). Given Athletic’s solid but not explosive attacking xG of 1.498 and Elche’s low offensive xG of 0.544, a controlled home win by one or two goals fits the under 2.5 narrative.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ath Bilbao
Corners in last 5 matches
Elche
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners for this match sit at 9.35, pointing towards a moderate but not frantic game in wide areas. Athletic’s recent corner counts (3-2, 4-3, 6-3) show a steady ability to pin teams back without producing huge numbers, while Elche’s last three (10-3, 4-2, 2-8) illustrate a side that can both pile on pressure at home and be forced deep by stronger opponents. With Athletic likely to dominate territory at San Mamés, the corners prediction suggests they’ll rack up a reasonable share without the match turning into a corner-fest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ath Bilbao
Shots in last 5 matches
Elche
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.59, which lines up with both teams’ recent patterns. Athletic have generated 13, 22 and 19 shots in their last three games, consistently outperforming their opponents and reflecting their positive xG trend. Elche, by contrast, have allowed 30 shots to Barcelona and 11 each to Sociedad and Osasuna, showing how often they’re on the back foot. This shots prediction supports the idea that Athletic will do the bulk of the attacking, turning sustained pressure into chances even if the final scoreline remains relatively low.

Final Prediction

Athletic Bilbao’s edge comes from their stronger recent form, healthier xG profile, and clear territorial dominance in shots and corners compared to an Elche side that is conceding too many chances. Elche’s low attacking output and high xG against make an away upset unlikely. A key factor to watch will be how early Athletic can turn their pressure into a goal; if they strike first, their control of the game should see them safely over the line.

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