Barcelona
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#4 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Oct 20, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #1 of 20 93.8 expected pts · currently 24 pts after 8 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
🏆 Final: #1 of 20 in La Liga 94 pts · 31W-1D-6L · GD +59
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Barcelona?
On script 2025-26 · 30 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Barcelona's results were 49.1% easier to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Barcelona | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 83.3% | 51.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 70.0% | 58.2% |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 55.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | #1 | 1534 | 1663 | 1663 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | #1 | 1534 | 1782 | 1744 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | #1 | 1529 | 1734 | 1727 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | #2 | 1502 | 1698 | 1698 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | #3 | 1498 | 1746 | 1599 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | #3 | 1520 | 1716 | 1621 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | #3 | 1525 | 1741 | 1651 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | #2 | 1482 | 1710 | 1676 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | #1 | 1522 | 1756 | 1712 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | #1 | 1520 | 1778 | 1741 |
| 2016-17 | La Liga | #1 | 1523 | 1754 | 1754 |
| 2015-16 | La Liga | #2 | 1529 | 1762 | 1696 |
| 2014-15 | La Liga | #1 | 1522 | 1778 | 1764 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/barcelona">La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/la_liga"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings · Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/barcelona">La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>