Barcelona

La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1745 · #1 La Liga On script Updated May 17, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #1 of 20 72.1 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 50.1%
Champions League 85.8%
Europa League 7.4%
Relegation 0.1%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Barcelona?

On script 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Barcelona's results were 54.1% easier to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.

MarketBarcelonaLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 84.4% 51.1%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 71.9% 58.6%
Both teams to score 59.4% 56.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 La Liga #1 1534 1782 1744
2024-25 La Liga #1 1529 1734 1727
2023-24 La Liga #2 1502 1698 1698
2022-23 La Liga #3 1498 1746 1599
2021-22 La Liga #3 1520 1716 1621
2020-21 La Liga #3 1525 1741 1651
2019-20 La Liga #2 1482 1710 1676
2018-19 La Liga #1 1522 1756 1712
2017-18 La Liga #1 1520 1778 1741
2016-17 La Liga #1 1523 1754 1754
2015-16 La Liga #2 1529 1762 1696
2014-15 La Liga #1 1522 1778 1764

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 vs Real Betis W Barcelona 74.0% · draw 13.9% W ✓
May 13, 2026 at Alaves W Barcelona 63.0% · draw 18.0% L ✗
May 10, 2026 vs Real Madrid W Barcelona 55.7% · draw 20.6% W ✓
May 02, 2026 at Osasuna W Barcelona 53.1% · draw 21.8% W ✓
Apr 25, 2026 at Getafe W Barcelona 64.4% · draw 17.4% W ✓
Apr 22, 2026 vs Celta Vigo W Barcelona 85.1% · draw 8.5% W ✓
Apr 11, 2026 vs Espanyol W Barcelona 86.2% · draw 8.0% W ✓
Apr 04, 2026 at Atlético Madrid W Barcelona 51.5% · draw 21.1% W ✓
Mar 22, 2026 vs Rayo Vallecano W Barcelona 82.8% · draw 9.6% W ✓
Mar 15, 2026 vs Sevilla W Barcelona 87.7% · draw 7.1% W ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/barcelona">La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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