Barcelona
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#4 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Sep 04, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #1 of 20 81.5 expected pts · currently 9 pts after 3 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
🏆 Final: #1 of 20 in La Liga 94 pts · 31W-1D-6L · GD +59
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Barcelona?
On script 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Barcelona's results were 54.1% easier to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Barcelona | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 84.4% | 51.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 71.9% | 58.6% |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 56.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | #1 | 1534 | 1565 | 1565 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | #1 | 1534 | 1782 | 1744 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | #1 | 1529 | 1734 | 1727 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | #2 | 1502 | 1698 | 1698 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | #3 | 1498 | 1746 | 1599 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | #3 | 1520 | 1716 | 1621 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | #3 | 1525 | 1741 | 1651 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | #2 | 1482 | 1710 | 1676 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | #1 | 1522 | 1756 | 1712 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | #1 | 1520 | 1778 | 1741 |
| 2016-17 | La Liga | #1 | 1523 | 1754 | 1754 |
| 2015-16 | La Liga | #2 | 1529 | 1762 | 1696 |
| 2014-15 | La Liga | #1 | 1522 | 1778 | 1764 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Real Betis | W Barcelona 74.0% · draw 13.9% | W ✓ |
| May 13, 2026 | at Alaves | W Barcelona 63.0% · draw 18.0% | L ✗ |
| May 10, 2026 | vs Real Madrid | W Barcelona 55.7% · draw 20.6% | W ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Osasuna | W Barcelona 53.1% · draw 21.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Getafe | W Barcelona 64.4% · draw 17.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 22, 2026 | vs Celta Vigo | W Barcelona 85.1% · draw 8.5% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Espanyol | W Barcelona 86.2% · draw 8.0% | W ✓ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Atlético Madrid | W Barcelona 51.5% · draw 21.1% | W ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Rayo Vallecano | W Barcelona 82.8% · draw 9.6% | W ✓ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Sevilla | W Barcelona 87.7% · draw 7.1% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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