Real Sociedad

La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1452 · #14 La Liga Chaos club Updated May 17, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #11 of 20 50.4 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 1.3%
Champions League 12.3%
Europa League 10.4%
Relegation 14.3%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Real Sociedad?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Real Sociedad's results were 16.5% harder to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.

MarketReal SociedadLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 40.6% 51.1%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 56.2% 58.6%
Both teams to score 78.1% 56.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 La Liga #14 1502 1550 1452
2024-25 La Liga #16 1471 1562 1418
2023-24 La Liga #7 1498 1590 1538
2022-23 La Liga #2 1529 1640 1634
2021-22 La Liga #7 1480 1628 1549
2020-21 La Liga #7 1502 1637 1554
2019-20 La Liga #8 1502 1576 1498
2018-19 La Liga #9 1529 1543 1507
2017-18 La Liga #14 1529 1572 1480
2016-17 La Liga #8 1466 1602 1558
2015-16 La Liga #7 1502 1538 1506
2014-15 La Liga #10 1482 1536 1500

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 vs Valencia W Real Sociedad 49.4% · draw 24.1% L ✗
May 14, 2026 at Girona L Real Sociedad 32.1% · draw 25.1% D ✗
May 09, 2026 vs Real Betis W Real Sociedad 42.6% · draw 24.4% D ✗
May 04, 2026 at Sevilla L Real Sociedad 37.2% · draw 25.5% L ✓
Apr 26, 2026 at Rayo Vallecano L Real Sociedad 29.5% · draw 24.3% D ✗
Apr 22, 2026 vs Getafe W Real Sociedad 63.7% · draw 18.5% L ✗
Apr 11, 2026 vs Alaves W Real Sociedad 55.8% · draw 21.8% D ✗
Apr 04, 2026 vs Levante W Real Sociedad 56.0% · draw 21.7% W ✓
Mar 20, 2026 at Villarreal L Real Sociedad 17.0% · draw 18.0% L ✓
Mar 15, 2026 vs Osasuna W Real Sociedad 45.4% · draw 25.2% W ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

The La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/real-sociedad">La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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