Osasuna

La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1542 · #4 La Liga 2W-1D-0L · 7 pts In line Updated Sep 03, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #8 of 20 53.5 expected pts · currently 7 pts after 3 matches

League title 0.1%
Champions League places 13.9%
Europa League 18.1%
Relegation 2.8%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Osasuna?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Osasuna's results were 1.4% easier to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.

MarketOsasunaLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 53.1% 51.1%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 34.4% 58.6%
Both teams to score 59.4% 56.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 La Liga #4 1497 1542 1542
2025-26 La Liga #19 1482 1549 1412
2024-25 La Liga #7 1498 1545 1542
2023-24 La Liga #12 1533 1533 1455
2022-23 La Liga #8 1518 1557 1492
2021-22 La Liga #15 1498 1565 1440
2020-21 La Liga #10 1533 1533 1479
2019-20 La Liga #7 1529 1547 1533
2018-19 Segunda División #1 1515 1714 1714
2017-18 Segunda División #7 1498 1598 1545
2016-17 La Liga #19 1502 1502 1327

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 vs Espanyol W Osasuna 57.9% · draw 21.0% L ✗
May 12, 2026 vs Atlético Madrid L Osasuna 28.1% · draw 23.6% L ✓
May 08, 2026 at Levante W Osasuna 44.8% · draw 24.8% L ✗
May 02, 2026 vs Barcelona L Osasuna 25.0% · draw 21.8% L ✓
Apr 26, 2026 vs Sevilla W Osasuna 69.0% · draw 16.2% W ✓
Apr 21, 2026 at Athletic Bilbao L Osasuna 19.8% · draw 20.0% L ✓
Apr 12, 2026 vs Real Betis L Osasuna 36.4% · draw 26.0% D ✗
Apr 05, 2026 at Alaves L Osasuna 25.9% · draw 24.0% D ✗
Mar 21, 2026 vs Girona W Osasuna 44.7% · draw 26.0% W ✓
Mar 15, 2026 at Real Sociedad L Osasuna 29.4% · draw 25.2% L ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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