La Liga 2025-2026: Ath Madrid vs Celta Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Ath Madrid

Home Team
70%
VS

Celta

Away Team
14%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 23.9
Expected Spread: +1.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 34 29 1 4 89 31 58 88
2 Real Madrid 34 24 5 5 70 31 39 77
3 Villarreal 34 21 5 8 64 39 25 68
4 Ath Madrid 34 19 6 9 58 37 21 63
5 Betis 34 13 14 7 52 41 11 53
6 Celta 34 12 11 11 48 44 4 47
7 Getafe 34 13 5 16 28 36 -8 44
8 Betis 34 13 5 16 40 50 -10 44
9 Sociedad 34 11 10 13 52 53 -1 43
10 Osasuna 34 11 9 14 40 42 -2 42
11 Vallecano 34 10 12 12 35 41 -6 42
12 Valencia 34 10 9 15 37 50 -13 39
13 Espanol 34 10 9 15 37 51 -14 39
14 Elche 34 9 11 14 45 53 -8 38
15 Mallorca 34 10 8 16 42 51 -9 38
16 Girona 34 9 11 14 36 51 -15 38
17 Sevilla 34 10 7 17 41 55 -14 37
18 Alaves 34 9 9 16 40 53 -13 36
19 Levante 34 8 9 17 38 55 -17 33
20 Oviedo 34 6 10 18 26 54 -28 28

Recent Trends

Ath Madrid W W L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 2)

Celta W L L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ath Madrid

xG (avg) 2.48
xGA (avg) 1.32
Clean Sheets 1

Celta

xG (avg) 1.19
xGA (avg) 1.62
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Metropolitano, Ath Madrid are clear favourites, with a 70.0% chance of victory against Celta’s 14.0%, and a 16.0% probability of a draw. Diego Simeone’s side sit 4th on 63 points, chasing a Champions League place, while Celta are 6th on 47 points and looking up rather than down. The model leans towards a home win combined with an over 2.5 prediction, with 58.0% probability that the game produces at least three goals.

Match Analysis

Ath Madrid come in with two wins and one defeat from their last three, and all three have been eventful. They beat Valencia 2-0 away in a controlled display (20-12 shots, 7-1 corners), edged a 3-2 thriller at home to Athletic Bilbao, but slipped up 3-2 at Elche despite leading the shot count only narrowly. There is a clear pattern: they are creating enough to score, but they are giving opponents chances as well. Celta also arrive in decent shape despite two losses in three. They dispatched Elche 3-1 at home, then went down by fine margins away to Villarreal (2-1) and Barcelona (1-0). Their recent numbers show competitiveness even on the road: 9 shots at Villarreal and 6 at Camp Nou suggest they can ask questions of better sides, though they’ve not kept a clean sheet in their last five. The advanced metrics tilt this fixture strongly towards the hosts. Ath Madrid are averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over their last five, backed up by 2.482 expected goals (xG) for and 1.318 xG against – they’re regularly generating more and better chances than their opponents. Celta’s profile is flatter: 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded on average, with 1.186 xG for and 1.624 xG against, indicating they tend to give up higher-quality opportunities than they create. Over 90 minutes in Madrid, that imbalance usually tells.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ath Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
Celta
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 58.0% looks well supported by recent form. Two of Ath Madrid’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Ath Bilbao, 3-2 vs Elche), with only the 2-0 at Valencia staying under. For Celta, two of their last three also finished under 2.5 (1-2 vs Villarreal, 0-1 vs Barcelona), with the 3-1 win over Elche going over. Ath Madrid’s 2.4 scored and 1.6 conceded per game, plus Celta’s 1.4 both for and against, along with their respective xG figures, all point to enough chances being created for another game to clear the 2.5 line rather than sit in the under 2.5 range.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ath Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches
Celta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.33 total corners, suggesting a moderately open contest without being a corner-fest. Ath Madrid’s last three have produced 8, 7 and 16 total corners respectively, while Celta’s have seen 6, 12 and 8. With both sides capable of sustained spells of attacking – as shown by Atleti’s 7-1 corner dominance at Valencia and Celta’s 5-7 away at Villarreal – the predicted corners figure fits two teams who build pressure in wide areas rather than sit deep for 90 minutes.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ath Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches
Celta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match sits at 23.9, aligning neatly with recent shot totals. Ath Madrid’s last three games have yielded 20, 6 and 6 attempts respectively, while facing 12, 12 and 14; Celta have taken 6, 9 and 6 shots, conceding 15, 13 and 10. The shots prediction reflects Atleti’s higher attacking ceiling, supported by that 2.482 average xG, with Celta contributing a decent but smaller share of efforts on goal.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Ath Madrid wins by X goals. Negative = Celta wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Ath Madrid vs Celta with expected spread of +1.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Ath Madrid vs Celta
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Ath Madrid -0.99, essentially expecting the home side to win by about one goal. Over their last three, Atleti’s goal differences read +2, +1 and -1, showing they’re more often on the right side of tight scorelines. Celta sit at +2, -1 and -1 in the same period, solid but less convincing against top opposition. That expected spread matches the 70.0% home-win probability and the underlying metrics: Atleti create more, concede slightly less, and have the sharper edge in both boxes.

Final Prediction

Ath Madrid’s superior chance creation, stronger defensive numbers and home advantage combine to give them a clear edge over Celta. The visitors have enough about them to make it competitive, but their tendency to allow good chances could be costly against a side averaging 2.4 goals per game recently. The key factor to watch will be how Celta’s back line copes with sustained Atleti pressure; if they bend early, the scoreboard – and the league table – will tilt further in Simeone’s favour.

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