Villarreal
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #4 of 20 57.6 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #3 of 20 in La Liga 72 pts · 22W–6D–10L · GD +26
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Villarreal?
On script 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Villarreal's results were 25.1% easier to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Villarreal | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 59.4% | 51.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 58.6% |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 56.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | La Liga | #5 | 1520 | 1655 | 1539 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | #3 | 1498 | 1660 | 1660 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | #6 | 1471 | 1591 | 1589 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | #5 | 1534 | 1612 | 1579 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | #6 | 1498 | 1599 | 1563 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | #8 | 1516 | 1598 | 1535 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | #5 | 1498 | 1585 | 1554 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | #8 | 1471 | 1512 | 1512 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | #5 | 1482 | 1594 | 1552 |
| 2016-17 | La Liga | #4 | 1502 | 1604 | 1604 |
| 2015-16 | La Liga | #8 | 1502 | 1637 | 1497 |
| 2014-15 | La Liga | #8 | 1533 | 1611 | 1508 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Rayo Vallecano | W Villarreal 45.3% · draw 24.4% | L ✗ |
| May 13, 2026 | vs Sevilla | W Villarreal 69.9% · draw 15.8% | L ✗ |
| May 10, 2026 | at Mallorca | L Villarreal 36.1% · draw 26.0% | D ✗ |
| May 02, 2026 | vs Levante | W Villarreal 72.8% · draw 14.5% | W ✓ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Celta Vigo | W Villarreal 63.4% · draw 18.6% | W ✓ |
| Apr 23, 2026 | at Real Oviedo | W Villarreal 41.4% · draw 25.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Athletic Bilbao | L Villarreal 29.5% · draw 23.5% | W ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Girona | W Villarreal 48.7% · draw 23.5% | L ✗ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Real Sociedad | W Villarreal 65.0% · draw 18.0% | W ✓ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | at Alaves | W Villarreal 39.4% · draw 25.5% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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