La Liga 2025-2026: Celta vs Levante Prediction - 12 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Celta

Home Team
59%
VS

Levante

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.0
Expected Spread: +0.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 35 30 1 4 91 31 60 91
2 Real Madrid 35 24 5 6 70 33 37 77
3 Villarreal 35 21 6 8 65 40 25 69
4 Ath Madrid 35 19 6 10 58 38 20 63
5 Betis 35 13 15 7 54 43 11 54
6 Celta 35 13 11 11 49 44 5 50
7 Getafe 35 13 6 16 28 36 -8 45
8 Sociedad 35 11 11 13 54 55 -1 44
9 Betis 35 13 5 17 40 51 -11 44
10 Vallecano 35 10 13 12 36 42 -6 43
11 Osasuna 35 11 9 15 42 45 -3 42
12 Valencia 35 11 9 15 38 50 -12 42
13 Sevilla 35 11 7 17 43 56 -13 40
14 Elche 35 9 12 14 46 54 -8 39
15 Mallorca 35 10 9 16 43 52 -9 39
16 Espanol 35 10 9 16 38 53 -15 39
17 Girona 35 9 12 14 37 52 -15 39
18 Alaves 35 9 10 16 41 54 -13 37
19 Levante 35 9 9 17 41 57 -16 36
20 Oviedo 35 6 11 18 26 54 -28 29

Recent Trends

Celta W W L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 3)

Levante W L D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Celta

xG (avg) 1.63
xGA (avg) 1.22
Clean Sheets 1

Levante

xG (avg) 0.91
xGA (avg) 2.44
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Celta are favored to take all three points at Balaídos, with a 59.0% probability of a home win against a Levante side sitting 19th and fighting to escape the bottom three. Levante’s chances are rated at just 21.0%, with the draw also at 21.0%. The model leans towards a tight game in terms of goals, with an under 2.5 prediction at 53.0% despite Celta’s position in 6th and their push towards the European places.

Match Analysis

Celta arrive in good shape after two impressive results from their last three games: a 1-0 away win at fourth-placed Atlético Madrid and a 3-1 home victory over Elche, sandwiching a narrow 2-1 defeat at Villarreal. Those matches show a side capable of grinding out a clean sheet in a tough away setting but also opening up at home. Over their last five outings, Celta are averaging 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, but their expected figures (1.632 xG for, 1.222 xG against) hint at a slightly more controlled team than the raw scorelines suggest. Levante, 19th on 36 points, are in a more desperate position. Their last three games have been wildly varied: a 3-2 home win over Osasuna driven by a barrage of 35 shots and 15 corners, a heavy 5-1 loss at Villarreal, and a cagey 0-0 away to Espanyol. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged just 0.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, with 0.914 xG for and a worrying 2.442 xG against. The three clean sheets in those five show they can shut games down, but when they open up, they’re vulnerable.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Celta
Goals in last 5 matches
Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly to under 2.5 goals with a 47.0% chance of over 2.5, implying about 53.0% on the under. Two of Celta’s last three league games have gone over 2.5 goals (3-1 vs Elche, 2-1 at Villarreal), with only the 1-0 win at Atlético coming under. Levante have seen two of their last three go over (3-2 vs Osasuna, 1-5 at Villarreal) and one under (0-0 at Espanyol), but their five-game averages of 0.4 scored and 2.2 conceded, plus modest attacking xG, support the idea of a more measured contest here. That balance underpins the under 2.5 call despite both sides’ occasional high-scoring outings.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Celta
Corners in last 5 matches
Levante
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.43, a mid-range corners prediction that fits the recent numbers. Celta’s last three matches produced corner counts of 0-10, 4-2 and 5-7, showing they often concede territory, especially against stronger opponents. Levante’s profile is more extreme: 15-1 vs Osasuna, 3-7 at Villarreal and 4-4 at Espanyol. Their capacity to rack up corners when chasing a game or piling on pressure suggests the predicted corners total is realistic, with Levante likely to drive much of that volume through direct, wing-focused attacks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Celta
Shots in last 5 matches
Levante
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model points to 23.99 expected shots in total, a shots prediction that sits between Levante’s frenetic attacking day against Osasuna and their quieter matches on the road. Celta’s last three have seen them take 3, 6 and 9 shots while facing 20, 15 and 13, respectively, underlining their tendency to be pragmatic and selective in front of goal. Levante’s 35, 12 and 8 shots in their last three, combined with their 0.914 xG per game, suggest they will shoot often enough but not always from high-quality positions, aligning with the expected shots figure.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Celta wins by X goals. Negative = Levante wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Celta vs Levante with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Celta vs Levante
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal spread prediction sits at +0.47 in Celta’s favor, meaning the hosts are projected to win by roughly half a goal on average. Over their last three, Celta have a combined goal difference of +1 (1-0, 3-1, 1-2), reflecting a side generally on the right side of tight margins. Levante’s recent goal difference is -3 (3-2, 1-5, 0-0), consistent with the model’s view that they are underdogs here. That expected spread matches the 59.0% home-win probability and the contrast between Celta’s more stable xG profile and Levante’s leaky defensive metrics.

Final Prediction

Celta’s edge comes from their higher league standing, recent wins over strong opponents and a more balanced underlying profile at both ends of the pitch. Levante’s urgency and ability to generate volume – in shots and corners – make them dangerous, but their defensive numbers leave them exposed. The key factor to watch will be how often Levante can pin Celta back in wide areas; if the hosts manage that threat, their superior efficiency should decide the game.

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