La Liga 2025-2026: Levante vs Mallorca Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Levante

Home Team
55%
VS

Mallorca

Away Team
23%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 25.0
Expected Spread: +0.6

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 36 30 1 5 91 32 59 91
2 Real Madrid 36 25 5 6 72 33 39 80
3 Villarreal 36 21 6 9 67 43 24 69
4 Ath Madrid 36 20 6 10 60 39 21 66
5 Betis 36 14 15 7 56 44 12 57
6 Celta 36 13 11 12 51 47 4 50
7 Getafe 36 14 6 16 31 37 -6 48
8 Sociedad 36 11 12 13 55 56 -1 45
9 Betis 36 13 5 18 40 53 -13 44
10 Vallecano 36 10 14 12 37 43 -6 44
11 Valencia 36 11 10 15 39 51 -12 43
12 Sevilla 36 12 7 17 46 58 -12 43
13 Osasuna 36 11 9 16 43 47 -4 42
14 Espanol 36 11 9 16 40 53 -13 42
15 Girona 36 9 13 14 38 53 -15 40
16 Alaves 36 10 10 16 42 54 -12 40
17 Elche 36 9 12 15 47 56 -9 39
18 Mallorca 36 10 9 17 44 55 -11 39
19 Levante 36 10 9 17 44 59 -15 39
20 Oviedo 36 6 11 19 26 56 -30 29

Recent Trends

Levante W W L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 0)

Mallorca L D W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Levante

xG (avg) 2.36
xGA (avg) 0.90
Clean Sheets 2

Mallorca

xG (avg) 0.90
xGA (avg) 1.92
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Levante are favoured to take all three points here, with a 55.0% probability of a home win against Mallorca’s 23.0% chance, and a 22.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards a low‑scoring contest with an under 2.5 prediction at 58.0% (42.0% for over 2.5), despite both sides’ recent high‑scoring games. In the table, Mallorca sit 18th and Levante 19th, level on 39 points, so this is a straight relegation shootout with enormous stakes.

Match Analysis

Levante come into this one in chaotic but largely positive form: two dramatic 3-2 wins over Osasuna and Celta were followed by a heavy 5-1 defeat at Villarreal. Those last three matches produced 7 goals scored and 9 conceded, underlining the volatility in their performances. Yet the underlying numbers over the last five games are strong: 2.2 goals scored on average, just 1.0 conceded, and impressive xG figures of 2.364 for and only 0.898 against, with two clean sheets in that spell. That suggests a team creating plenty and generally limiting chances, even if the Villarreal loss skewed the raw goals. Mallorca’s recent run is steadier but less explosive: a 1-0 away win at Girona, a hard-fought 1-1 home draw with Villarreal, then a 3-1 defeat at Getafe. They’ve scored 3 and conceded 4 across those three fixtures, with only one clean sheet. The advanced metrics paint a worrying picture: just 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average in the last five, with only 0.898 xG created per game versus 1.924 xG allowed. That imbalance – struggling to carve out clear chances while giving up plenty – explains why the expected spread tilts towards Levante despite their lower defensive record across the season.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to under 2.5 as the likelier outcome, with a 58.0% edge over the 42.0% chance of an over 2.5 prediction. Recent scorelines hint the other way for Levante – 3-2, 3-2 and 1-5 all cleared the line, so 3 out of 3 have gone over 2.5. Mallorca, by contrast, have seen two of their last three finish under 2.5 (1-0 at Girona, 1-1 vs Villarreal) and only the 3-1 loss at Getafe went over. When you fold in the longer-term averages – Levante at 2.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, Mallorca at 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded, aligned with Mallorca’s low 0.898 xG for – the data leans toward a tighter affair than Levante’s recent thrillers.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Levante
Corners in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.67 total, suggesting a match around the 9–10 corner mark. Levante’s last three games have seen totals of 8 (4-4 at Celta), 16 (15-1 vs Osasuna) and 10 (3-7 at Villarreal), showing that when they’re on the front foot they rack up set-piece opportunities. Mallorca’s recent corner counts – 5 at Girona (2-3), 9 vs Villarreal (5-4) and 6 at Getafe (3-3) – are more modest but consistent. With both sides needing a result and Levante in particular showing a willingness to attack from wide areas, the predicted corners figure fits the profile of a game with steady, if not extreme, attacking pressure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Levante
Shots in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots tally is 24.97, so roughly 25 attempts in total. Levante have been shot-hungry lately: 14 efforts at Celta, a huge 35 against Osasuna, and 12 at Villarreal, also allowing 11, 5 and 20 respectively. Mallorca’s last three show them often on the back foot – 8 shots for and 14 against at Girona, 18-7 in their favour versus Villarreal, then 9-6 at Getafe – making them inconsistent but generally involved in open games. Given Levante’s strong attacking xG of 2.364 over the last five and Mallorca’s high xG against (1.924), the shots prediction of around 25 attempts matches a contest where the home side should generate the clearer chances.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Levante wins by X goals. Negative = Mallorca wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Levante vs Mallorca with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Levante vs Mallorca
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Levante -0.59, meaning the home side are expected to win by a little more than half a goal on average. Recently, Levante’s goal differences in their last three have been +1, +1 and -4, while Mallorca’s read +1, 0 and -2. That pattern – Levante capable of high-scoring wins but vulnerable, Mallorca tighter yet generally out-created – chimes with the 55.0% home-win probability and the better attacking and defensive xG profile for the hosts. The expected spread underlines Levante as narrow but clear favourites in a marginal relegation duel.

Final Prediction

Levante’s superior recent xG numbers, higher scoring rate and home advantage give them the edge over a Mallorca side that has been second best in chance quality for several weeks. If the hosts maintain their current attacking volume while trimming the defensive lapses seen at Villarreal, they should justify their favourite tag. The key factor to watch will be whether Mallorca can disrupt Levante’s supply line and drag the match towards the slower, lower-margin battle their underlying numbers seem to demand.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel