Girona

Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1590 · #5 Segunda División 4W-3D-2L · 15 pts Chaos club Updated Oct 12, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #7 of 22 63.3 expected pts · currently 15 pts after 9 matches

League title 2.2%
Promotion 14.2%
Automatic promotion 6.4%
Promotion playoffs 36.5%
Relegation 0.8%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Segunda División simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Girona?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Girona's results were 33.6% harder to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.

MarketGironaLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 34.5% 51.8%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 48.3% 58.2%
Both teams to score 62.1% 55.6%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Segunda División #5 1550 1597 1590
2025-26 La Liga #16 1467 1527 1438
2024-25 La Liga #18 1502 1537 1371
2023-24 La Liga #3 1502 1702 1622
2022-23 La Liga #10 1482 1573 1488
2021-22 Segunda División #6 1639 1671 1572
2020-21 Segunda División #1 1520 1663 1660
2019-20 Segunda División #5 1482 1580 1550
2018-19 La Liga #20 1498 1542 1353
2017-18 La Liga #15 1498 1572 1444

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 12, 2026 at Tenerife W Girona 37.3% · draw 30.4% D ✗
Oct 04, 2026 vs Mallorca W Girona 41.8% · draw 30.9% D ✗
Sep 25, 2026 vs Albacete W Girona 63.7% · draw 21.6% W ✓
Sep 19, 2026 at Cadiz W Girona 42.5% · draw 28.3% W ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/girona">Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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