Girona
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #19 of 20 in La Liga 41 pts · 9W–14D–15L · GD -16
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Girona?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Girona's results were 38.4% harder to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Girona | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 31.2% | 51.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 58.6% |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 56.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | La Liga | #16 | 1467 | 1527 | 1438 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | #18 | 1502 | 1537 | 1371 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | #3 | 1502 | 1702 | 1622 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | #10 | 1482 | 1573 | 1488 |
| 2021-22 | Segunda División | #6 | 1639 | 1671 | 1572 |
| 2020-21 | Segunda División | #1 | 1520 | 1663 | 1660 |
| 2019-20 | Segunda División | #5 | 1482 | 1580 | 1550 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | #20 | 1498 | 1542 | 1353 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | #15 | 1498 | 1572 | 1444 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Atlético Madrid | L Girona 14.0% · draw 15.5% | L ✓ |
| May 14, 2026 | vs Real Sociedad | W Girona 42.8% · draw 25.1% | D ✗ |
| May 11, 2026 | at Rayo Vallecano | L Girona 23.3% · draw 22.2% | D ✗ |
| May 01, 2026 | vs Mallorca | W Girona 51.5% · draw 23.5% | L ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Valencia | L Girona 21.0% · draw 20.9% | L ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Real Betis | L Girona 32.5% · draw 25.8% | L ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at Real Madrid | L Girona 8.4% · draw 10.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Villarreal | L Girona 27.8% · draw 23.5% | W ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Osasuna | L Girona 29.3% · draw 26.0% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Athletic Bilbao | L Girona 27.2% · draw 23.1% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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