Mallorca
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #17 of 20 in La Liga 42 pts · 11W–9D–18L · GD -10
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Mallorca?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Mallorca's results were 5.3% easier to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Mallorca | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 50.0% | 51.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | 58.6% |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 56.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | La Liga | #15 | 1466 | 1487 | 1450 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | #14 | 1498 | 1551 | 1421 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | #11 | 1502 | 1502 | 1465 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | #9 | 1502 | 1538 | 1490 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | #16 | 1498 | 1540 | 1424 |
| 2020-21 | Segunda División | #2 | 1527 | 1723 | 1627 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | #17 | 1518 | 1518 | 1408 |
| 2018-19 | Segunda División | #4 | 1521 | 1616 | 1570 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Levante | L Mallorca 23.0% · draw 21.9% | L ✓ |
| May 13, 2026 | at Getafe | L Mallorca 24.8% · draw 23.4% | L ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | vs Villarreal | W Mallorca 38.0% · draw 26.0% | D ✗ |
| May 01, 2026 | at Girona | L Mallorca 25.0% · draw 23.5% | W ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Alaves | L Mallorca 28.1% · draw 25.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Valencia | W Mallorca 39.7% · draw 24.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Rayo Vallecano | W Mallorca 41.7% · draw 25.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | vs Real Madrid | L Mallorca 19.8% · draw 18.5% | W ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Elche | L Mallorca 25.5% · draw 22.8% | L ✓ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Espanyol | L Mallorca 31.5% · draw 24.2% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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